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  • A Rival to the Original National Review?

    by coldwarrior ( 11 Comments › )
    Filed under Academia, Media, Open thread, Politics, Republican Party at April 24th, 2017 - 8:01 am

    National Review as we knew it died in the last Presidential Election cycle. From what I can see THIS may replace them in both content and thoughtful writing.

    Some excellent reading here….

    Of course, William F. Buckley will never, nor could he ever, be replaced. Those intellectual lightweights who inherited his brilliant publication, National Review, have managed to turn it into yet a mere stompy-foot, pedestrian, and vapid click-bait factory.

    Perhaps American Affairs can pick up where Buckley left off?

    Big Week Coming Up

    by coldwarrior ( 170 Comments › )
    Filed under Open thread at April 21st, 2017 - 11:55 pm

    So, usually I put up a lecture for Saturday but the coming week is going to YUGE.

    First, the elections in France are Sunday and Marie Le Pen is rising at the right time. Odd how this has a strange resemblance to certain goings on here in November…

    Second, it is earnings week; combined with the election in France, there will be some really fun market gyrations next week.

    Third, and I usually don’t like using other people’s content like this, but this is a MUST READ for the upcoming budget battle. Read it, print it, and put it on your fridge and use it like the bracket for March Madness. There are Trillions of dollars at stake.

    This is going to be fun:

    President Donald Trump’s tax plan next week likely won’t include a border-adjusted tax that House Speaker Paul Ryan has proposed, a senior administration official said.

    The White House is still debating the idea, according to the official. Trump will release a tax plan for individuals and businesses next week that may not include every component that will go into final legislation, according to a different senior White House official.

    The plan — which Trump said will be released Wednesday — will contain the administration’s priorities, said one of the officials. Both asked not to be identified because discussions of the plan are private.

    Ryan has proposed replacing the 35 percent corporate income tax with the 20 percent border-adjusted tax on U.S. companies’ domestic sales and imports. Exports would be exempt under the plan, which is opposed by retailers, carmakers and oil refiners that rely on imported goods. (I am not loving this idea at all as it is too broad and punished countries who trade honestly with us and there is too much room for influence buying and such swampish things to go on)

    White House Budget Director Mick Mulvaney, in an interview with Bloomberg Television, provided few details of Trump’s plan, saying it’s aimed at providing 3 percent annual growth. “We’re trying to backfill from there,” he said — by incorporating tax policy that would provide for that ambitious growth target. A Bloomberg survey of 73 economists in April showed the median forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2017 is 2.2 percent.

    Mulvaney also raised the possibility that the plan might not be revenue-neutral — meaning that it might provide for only temporary tax cuts that would have to expire after 10 years.

    “Deficits are not driving the discussion,” he said.

    The Associated Press reported Friday that Trump said the plan will result in “massive” tax cuts for both individuals and businesses. The cuts will be “bigger I believe than any tax cut ever,” he said, according to the AP report.

    Later, while signing an executive order related to a broad review of tax regulations from 2016 and 2017, Trump said he wants Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin “to begin the process of tax simplification.”

    3% growth. That number is very, very important for long term wealth building and stability. Without getting into the math and other such boring economic functions, 3% is the theoretic mean of positive growth that both allows for a natural level of unemployment UNDER 5.5% and inflation to be around 2%. One can go at a 3.5% or even 3.7% GDP growth and still be OK, but that is pushing it. 3%ish yearly growth is boring, predictable and good for business…and that is great for building real wealth in America.

    Econ Data and The Fed’s Dual Mandate

    by coldwarrior ( 126 Comments › )
    Filed under Economy, Open thread at April 19th, 2017 - 6:05 pm

    …To provide for full employment AND price stability…two mutually exclusive goals set by Congress, of course.

    U.S. economic growth was “evenly split” between modest to moderate activity between mid-February and the end of March as labor markets across the Federal Reserve’s 12 districts remained “tight,” the central bank said on Wednesday.

    In its anecdotal Beige Book report, the Fed noted the pickup in economic activity varied across certain regions as manufacturing held steady though freight shipments slowed, non-residential construction remained strong and energy-related businesses continued to improve.

    Though tourism and travel generally showed a pick up during the reporting period, consumer spending fluctuated district by district amid strong vehicle sales but soft spending levels in other retail areas. The data jive with recent government reports that indicate retail sales have slowed from lofty levels in the first part of the year, but are somewhat conflicted with sentiment data that continue to show Americans remain, on average, upbeat about their economic prospects and feeling optimistic about their spending power.

    As prices across the Fed’s districts rose modestly, employment expanded, indicating the labor market remains tight despite data that showed U.S. hiring in March hit its slowest pace in ten months while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped. Consistent with a tighter labor market, the Fed noted a larger number of firms reported they had more difficulty finding qualified workers and faced increased labor costs. They also forecasted labor demand to rise over the next six months alongside modest wage growth.

    As it continues to eye two more rate rises before the end of the year, the Fed has paid close attention to continued tightening in the labor market and higher levels of inflation – components of its dual mandate from Congress. Though the labor market has made further progress toward the central bank’s goal, inflation continues to run below the 2% target. In February, the Labor Department said its core personal consumption expenditures index – the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation that strips out volatile food and energy prices – rose 1.8% on a year over year basis.

    The retail downturn happens every year in the Q2 because everyone has spent their ‘tax return’in Q1 ; which in and of itself is a false economy.

    Wages have not gone up since Clinton, ain’t NAFTA and GATT GREAT!!! Love those cheap imports, huh?

    Trump’s policies are already working to create real wealth again. Upward wage pressure means more demand for labor, some inflation means demand for goods and services…the velocity of money may be lifting off form the ZERO that it has been at since Bush.

    Let’s Do Some Math

    by coldwarrior ( 155 Comments › )
    Filed under Open thread at April 17th, 2017 - 11:29 am

    There will be a quiz at the end of this

    1 50 year old orthopedic surgeon + several bottles of X Brand Cabernet Sauvignon + 1 hover board =

    Solve For X.

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