It’s also an open thread (and a SLOW night in the ER)
There has been a debate in the world of Statistics on what to do now that there are such large N studies when the math is set up for much much smaller N’s.
The most intriguing fix has been here with us for 350 years. The Reverend Thomas Bayes put forth this:
is a conditional probability: the likelihood of event occurring given that is true.
is also a conditional probability: the likelihood of event occurring given that is true.
and are the probabilities of observing and independently of each other; this is known as the marginal probability.
This is the simplest example:
Drug testing[edit]
Tree diagram illustrating drug testing example. U, Ū, “+” and “−” are the events representing user, non-user, positive result and negative result. Percentages in parentheses are calculated.Suppose that a test for using a particular drug is 99% sensitive and 99% specific. That is, the test will produce 99% true positive results for drug users and 99% true negative results for non-drug users. Suppose that 0.5% of people are users of the drug. What is the probability that a randomly selected individual with a positive test is a user?
- 33.2%
Even if an individual tests positive, it is more likely that they do not use the drug than that they do. Why? Even though the test appears to be highly accurate, the number of non-users is large compared to the number of users. The number of false positives outweighs the number of true positives.
To use concrete numbers, if 1000 individuals are tested, there are expected to be 995 non-users and 5 users. From the 995 non-users, 0.01 × 995 ≃ 10 false positives are expected. From the 5 users, 0.99 × 5 ≈ 5 true positives are expected. Out of 15 positive results, only 5, about 33%, are genuine.
This illustrates the importance of base rates. Daniel Kahneman has argued that the formation of policy can be egregiously misguided if base rates are neglected when using statistics as a basis for guiding public policy.[3]
The importance of specificity in this example can be seen by calculating that even if sensitivity is raised to 100% and specificity remains at 99% then the probability of the person being a drug user only rises from 33.2% to 33.4%, but if the sensitivity is held at 99% and the specificity is increased to 99.5% then the probability of the person being a drug user rises to about 49.9%.
As you can see, without Bayes, and Bayesian probability interpretation, we lose how a subjective degree of belief should rationally change to account for availability of related evidence. Bayesian inference is needed for these much larger N studies and for ever more complicated statistical modeling especially if policy or important outcomes are determined by these date sets.
Statistical probability good enough to track macro-trends, fortunately, also good enough to ruin 66% of the test subjects receiving a positive test results lives. Like playing Russian roulette with a fully loaded Colt Model 1911. What could possibly go wrong?
morning y’all
https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2017/12/05/red-line-crossed-new-mueller-subpoena-of-deutsche-bank-takes-aim-at-trump-family-finances/
Branco Cartoon – Headline News
https://legalinsurrection.com/2017/12/branco-cartoon-headline-news/
Today on some Detroit radio show John Conyers will announce his retirement, based on the recommendation of his doctor. (Note: NOT ‘resignation’.)
Don’t worry about his seat, tho. A current state senator, one Ian CONYERS, will be ‘running’ for it. Yeah, a relative of some kind.
@ rain of lead:
yep, if I were colluding with Russia, I’d definitely leave a money trail in my personal/business bank accounts.
Like McCarthy said, this is about impeachment. John Podhoretz tried to pooh-pooh this whole idea that Strolz was the prime mover behind the change of verbiage to something anodyne in the characterization of Hillary’s emails. He tried to lay it on Comey. McCarthy has quickly corrected that. It was Obama.
@ eaglesoars:
it’s ramping up to be an interesting christmas
@ eaglesoars:
the girl has her 2 varsity tryout today
then another next week
hmmm
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5145947/U-S-foreign-officials-warn-Trump-not-call-Jerusalem-Israels-capital.html
rain of lead wrote:
what sport?
@ eaglesoars:
archery
any chance of this passing?
http://freebeacon.com/issues/house-vote-national-gun-carry-reciprocity-background-check-fix-bill-week/
nah, didn’t really think so
Depeche Mode, the British synth-pop group formed in 1980, is having one of the most remarkable tours in modern music and its most-successful concert run ever. The band sold 1.27 million tickets through the first nine months of 2017, more than Ed Sheeran, Justin Bieber or Bruno Mars — much younger pop acts at the peak of their fame.
because depeche mode doesnt suck, has talent, plays instruments and arent auto-tuned….
rain of lead wrote:
THAT is incredibly demanding. yowser. give her a kiss for me, gotta go.
CW, I have a question about false negatives but it will have to wait.
rain of lead wrote:
mrs coldwarrior was VERY good at archery back in the soviet union.
congrats to the girl!
@ coldwarrior:
congrats only if she makes the team
in the fall tryout, she missed making the team by 1 point!!!
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/12/04/two-doctors-fired-after-dead-baby-wakes-up-way-funeral/919346001/
Le gasp!
https://hotair.com/archives/2017/12/05/new-conyers-accuser-groped-church/
In Church!
@ rain of lead:
they are REALLY trying to posh him out, who gets his seat if he steps down?
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-israel-palestinians/trump-tells-abbas-intends-to-move-embassy-to-jerusalem-abbas-spokesman-idUSKBN1DZ24L?il=0
rain of lead wrote:
these guys
https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2017/12/05/heir-and-a-spare-rep-john-conyers-jr-announces-retirement-sets-up-battle-for-seat-between-son-and-great-nephew/
50F in December in PA…this calls for a ritual smoking of a solstice brisket!
@ coldwarrior:
mmmm…..brisket
sorry calo
@ rain of lead:
And this requires a ceremonial cigar from Esteli, Nicaragua
And a DarkStar stout made at the world famous Fat Beagle Brewery.
@ coldwarrior:
I just have yuengling
@ coldwarrior:
Oh snap! My brewery name got taken! Shoulda copywrote that in 91
dis could be yuge!!
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/12/begins-establishment-media-demands-conflicted-mueller-resign-russia-probe/
rain of lead wrote:
The pride of PA. America’s oldest brewery.
Yinz cant go wrong with Yeungling
@ rain of lead:
The CEO office is on the loading dock, he drives the forklift to relax.
Great family business.
yinz know yinz is a geek when yinz use a multi-probe thermocouple to map the heat pattern inside yinz’s smoker.
http://americanshootingjournal.com/double-barrel-ar-15-the-snake/
The Rev knew a thing or two about getting set up by the system when the set of subjects N is large. It could be known as ’round up the usual suspects’ scenario.
🙂
.
CALL THEIR BLUFF.
rain of lead wrote:
guess what? That happened weeks ago. It was hauled out now to knock the Stzrok crooked agent headlines off the front page.
coldwarrior wrote:
he wants Gulen. This is a bargaining chip.
While I was out I heard a report that the EU (I think it was the EU – maybe WTO?)) said we can’t change the tax code because it would violate trade agreements.
here, watch this………….
I figured out my false negative issue, so nevermind
eaglesoars wrote:
His brother’s son. But now Conyers has thrown HIM over the side in favor of his OWN son, John Jr.
Detroit is now officially Haiti
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/05/sports/olympics/ioc-russia-winter-olympics.html
no. let them compete but test the snot out of each and every one of them relentlessly.
then see how the russian do without doping.
if the east germans never got suspended for their OBVIOUS doping, then why should the russians?
eaglesoars wrote:
😆
well done, nice use of a real world example.
oh ffs
Fury as ‘martyr Museum’ in Germany includes Paris jihadist who stormed the Bataclan, killing 90 people
‘Martyr Museum’ shows portraits of 20 people who ‘died for their convictions’
Included are Bataclan bomber Omar Mostefai and 9/11 pilot Mohammed Atta
It sparked howls of outrage in German and French media and on social networks
I have an idea. The next time we reduce Berlin to rubble, we just leave it like that.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5144931/Fury-martyr-Museum-Germany-includes-Paris-jihadist.html
eaglesoars wrote:
😆
one must be in a position of some power to negotiate.
coldwarrior wrote:
I heard a report by a journalist who does competitive cycling. He ended up doing a doc on doping in sports. It turns out that almost ALL of the anti-aging supplements people take are, in fact, the same substances used in doping, just in different doses. And yes, Russia puts a TON of money into this.
Now see, if they were capitalists, they’d sell the stuff for its anti-aging properties but instead they use it to cheat at sports contests
@ eaglesoars:
let em ALL dope, but, their names dont go into he record books, the lab’s name does.
that goes for pro sport here too. wanna end up like lyle alzado? go ahead.
YES!!
They’ve just nailed Weissman. He’s the guy on Mueller’s team who absolutely destroyed Arthur Anderson before the entire case was overturned because he absolutely played dirty (withholding exculpatory evidence, etc.) Too late for AA, tens of thousands of jobs lost. He’s a dirty dirty dirty
Now they’ve got emails from him to Sally Yates saying how deeply proud he was of her for trying to sabotage Trump’s travel ban.
coldwarrior wrote:
I don’t think anabolic steroids are used for anti-aging supplements. but I get your point.
eaglesoars wrote:
all medicines and supplements are poison.
its just dose dependent.
eaglesoars wrote:
ummm…AA signed of on multiple audits of Enron and WorldCom…
hardly fiduciary responsibility there.
eaglesoars wrote:
looks like this is fake news….a leak of false info
@ coldwarrior:
I don’t think it’s false. As a matter of fact, when rain posted it I thought, “Didn’t they do that already? Maybe I’m misremembering a bank or something”
But I rarely give my memory the benefit of the doubt, so until I saw other people confirm that it DID happen, but awhile back, did I realize it was just meant as a distraction.
Must go fetch the intrepid beagle from day camp and fix dinner. Macker got me hungry for meatloaf. HA!
NO! Sarah Sanders says there has been NO subpoena of DB records.
@ eaglesoars:
Checka U E-mail! I just sent you a recipe I think you’ll like.
got it thanks. never made it w/turkey before
YOO HOO! DEPLORABLE BARBARIAN!!
Did the prosecution tell Flynn’s lawyer that their main witness against him was removed for bias? Since Strzok led the interview and his testimony would be needed to establish untruthfulness, he is a critical witness not just a prosecutor. If not disclosed, would this not be a Giglio violation? This is the kind of misconduct that can get a case dismissed and a lawyer disbarred. It is a Constitutional violation. This has bothered me since I heard about it.
https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/282605/
welp, I think the girl stands a really good chance of making the varsity team
their scores are locked in from their last tournament
so far from two tryouts her avg is 248
if she has another good round and her avg stays the same then she ties with three and outshoots 6 more
@ rain of lead:
excellent!
and so it begins…most of the furniture and other non-essentials have been moved out of the bar…
the setup for the girl’s ‘recording studio’ begins…sooo many amps!
BWAHAHAHAAAAA!!!!!!
@ rain of lead:
How many on the team?
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/12/breaking-new-immigration-gun-charges-filed-illegal-alien-killed-kate-steinle/
@ Gateway Pundit
Feds file immigration and gun charges against the illegal white Kate Steinle.
@ RIX:
“who shot”auto correct!
RIX wrote:
your spell check is prescient.
@ AZfederalist:
28 on high school varsity team
29 on Jr high school team
biggest in the county
rain of lead wrote:
WOAH!
can she get a scholarship out of this?
coldwarrior wrote:
Or something.
https://news.sky.com/story/terror-plot-to-assassinate-pm-may-foiled-11158388
@ Sky News
Two misunderstanders of the Koran busted for plotting to assasinate Theresa May.
“It has nothing to do with Islam”!
@ coldwarrior:
i shoulda hired a roadie.
rain of lead wrote:
Awesome. Sounds like she has a great chance of making the team.
RIX wrote:
Funny, they never say that if a Christian fundamentalist is accused of a crime.
@ coldwarrior:
Is it full-time and does it pay more than $13.50 an hour?
Deplorable Bumr50 wrote:
maybe one day…
😆
@ coldwarrior:
Keep me on the short list, LOL!
Off to slumber…
Deplorable Bumr50 wrote:
we’ll have a great time om on the road!
😆
“The importance of specificity in this example can be seen by calculating that even if sensitivity is raised to 100% and specificity remains at 99% then the probability of the person being a drug user only rises from 33.2% to 33.4%, but if the sensitivity is held at 99% and the specificity is increased to 99.5% then the probability of the person being a drug user rises to about 49.9%.”
Yeah, thats what SHE said …
A slow night in the ER is a good night in the ER.
@ Deplorable Macker:
If it’s a copy of Bunk’s Family Chili I’ll be pissed. Here it is.
https://tackyraccoons.com/2014/05/24/herding-chili-the-strutts-family-recipe/
coldwarrior wrote:
I used to play them on my walkman while patroling on the night shift. Glad they are still at it. I think the retro-80s sticks around because the musicians play instruments and the music industry has become a wasteland since.
morning y’all
hump day!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pD-gp_QphoU
Buckeye Abroad wrote:
u-bahn, walkman, depeche mode….(some smiths thrown in for good measure…)
Buckeye Abroad wrote:
Hmmm, go figure, real musicians who wrote real music and were damned good at it.
doriangrey wrote:
crazy how that works, huh?
NEW THREAD
@ 4_Sticks:
😆
indeed!
you have been freed from moderation, you may now post at will