CALLING ALL NEVERTRUMPERS!!!!
Since just before NAFTA and China in the WTO…SO, tell me again about Adam Smith and Milton Friedman again?
It’ OK, I’ll wait. I’ll Wait.
The Accounting Continues.
CALLING ALL NEVERTRUMPERS!!!!
Since just before NAFTA and China in the WTO…SO, tell me again about Adam Smith and Milton Friedman again?
It’ OK, I’ll wait. I’ll Wait.
The Accounting Continues.
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brookly red and octopus were just let out of moderation…
say hi to them
Not to go OT so soon, but I just had to stand behind a guy in line at the beer distributor who was trying to return the unused beer from his party last weekend.
Never had that happen before.
Deplorable Bumr50 wrote:
unused beer? whats that?
😉
@ coldwarrior:
I know, right?
The stoners at the counter and I had a good laugh after he left to go see if his wife still had the receipt.
Hiya brolly red & octopus.
Welcome guys
🙂
Deplorable Bumr50 wrote:
“here, take this back, I don’t want anymore.” said no redneck ever
Deplorable Bumr50 wrote:
ya know, there’s something just not right about that story. He wants to return beer and his wife has the receipt. Maybe. I’m thinking you’re looking at a hostage situation.
Welp. I just got a heads up. Seems the new leader of the UKIP party in the UK, the party that got Brexit done, is about to be outed as an adulterer tomorrow. And he has a baby at home. I’m trying to talk friends off the proverbial ledge.
BROOKLY!!!
kay, gotta see if Macker can pick up the phone, later.
Sad to report the passing of the father of our old friend and maker of merriment back in our Swamp days, David Burge, aka Iowahawk. His Twitter has a marvelous reminiscence. Can’t help but think Pater Burge had a lot to do with that fabulous wit.
With robotic manufacture about to explode into production facilities somewhere near to you tis is a good thing. Massive populations are an anchor to vibrant automated economies where innovation, education and access to resources and commodities is everything.Forget most international trade within the first world. It’s coming to a close except for specific high tech automated production of high tech products that need very high spec production technologies.
For most production however, ‘cottage’ local production will be the force of the future. Of course design information will in the majority of cases become just another commodity. Innovation and access to to commodity raw materials especially rare earths, cheap energy will dominate the marketplace.
Large established ‘internal markets like the US will continue to attract the best and brightest. Economies with huge low productive population masses will act as a drag on economies like China and India, compounding the effect of endemic corruption, and politico-cultural costs.The Muslim world is heading for a world of crushing economic and political cultural hurt but they will manifest this by attacking their neighbours.
Jan 3, 2018 | 09:00 GMT
4 mins read
Fertility Rates Keep Dropping, and It’s Going to Hit the Economy Hard
Global fertility rates have decreased by about half since 1960.(GEARSTD/iStock)
Partner Perspectives are a collection of high-quality analyses and commentary produced by organizations around the world. Though Stratfor does not necessarily endorse the views expressed here — and may even disagree with them — we respect the rigorous and innovative thought that their unique points of view inspire.
By Caitlin Cheadle for Visual Capitalist
Total fertility rates, which can be defined as the average number of children born to a woman who survives her reproductive years (aged 15-49), have decreased globally by about half since 1960.
This has drastically shaped today’s global economy, but a continued decline could have much more severe long-term consequences. If the world has too many elderly dependents and not enough workers, the burden on economic growth will be difficult to overcome.
Global Fertility Rates
FERTILITY RATES START TO DECLINE
First, it’s important to address some of the reasons for these falling fertility rates.
In developed nations the introduction of commercially available birth control has played a large role, but this also coincided with several major societal shifts. Changing religious values, the emancipation of women and their increasing participation in the workforce, and higher costs of childcare and education have all factored into declining fertility rates.
BIRTHRATES WANE, ECONOMY GAINS
Initially, reduced child dependency rates were actually beneficial to economic growth.
By delaying childbirth, men and women could gain an education before starting a family. This was important in a shifting labor market where smaller, family-run businesses were in decline and a more skilled and specialized labor force was in demand.
Men and women could also choose to start their careers before having families, while paying more in income taxes and enjoying the benefits of a higher disposable income. Increased spending power creates demand, which stimulates job growth – and the economy benefits in the short-term.
A GLOBAL PHENOMENON
Global Fertility Rates
Worldwide fertility rates began to fall substantially in the mid-1960s. While each country has its own underlying causes for this, it is interesting that in developed and developing nations, the downward trend is similar.
Part of this is due to developing countries’ own efforts to rein in their rapidly expanding populations. In China, the One Child Policy was introduced in 1979, however fertility rates had already dropped significantly prior to this. India’s government was also active on this front, sterilizing an estimated 8.3 million people (mostly men) between 1975 and 1977 as a method of population control.
THE AGE IMBALANCE
So here we are now, with a global fertility rate of just 2.5 – roughly half of what it was 50 years ago.
Today, 46% of the world’s population lives in countries that are below the average global replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman.
Because these countries (59 to be exact, including BRIC nations Brazil, Russia, and China) are not repopulating quickly enough to sustain their current populations, we are beginning to see a substantial imbalance in the ratio of elderly dependents to working-age people, which will only intensify over the coming decades.
Global Elderly Dependence Ratio
By 2100, the U.N. predicts that nearly 30% of the population will be made of people 60 years and older. Life expectancy also continues to increase steadily, which means those dependents will be living even longer. Between 2000 and 2015 the average global life expectancy at birth increased by around 5 years, reaching an average of 73.8 years for females and 69.1 years for males.
ECONOMIC REVERSAL
What does this mean for the economy?
As this large aging population exits the workforce, most of the positive trends that were spurred by declining fertility rates will be reversed, and economic growth will face a significant burden.
Working Age Population
The global increase of elderly dependent populations will have serious economic consequences. Health care costs for the elderly will strain resources, while the smaller working population will struggle to produce enough income tax revenue to support these rising costs. It’s likely this will cause spending power to decrease, consumerism to decline, job production to slow — and the economy to stagnate.
SOLUTIONS
Immigration has been a source of short-term population sustenance for many nations, including the U.S. and Britain. However, aside from obvious societal tensions associated with this strategy, immigrants are often adults themselves when they relocate, meaning they too will be elderly dependents soon.
Several nations are already experiencing the effects of a large proportion of elderly dependents. Japan, with one-quarter of its total population currently over the age of 65, has been a pioneer in developing technologies, such as robotics, as a solution to ease strained health care resources. Many countries are restructuring health care programs with long-term solutions in mind, while others are attempting to lower the cost of childcare and education.
The Geopolitics of Postmodern Parenting
Japan’s Future Demographic Challenge
Population Decline and the Great Economic Reversal
The world is currently poised right on the cusp of de-population with a reproduction poised just above 2.08. We will balance on that brink for a few years and then begin a gentle decline that will rapidly increase to a geometric decline by the end of the century. Those economies with enough resources of education/ human enterprise, design talent, energy and physical commodities, plus the odd internal economies like the US will survive. Those like China that recognise that they have to become an internal economy to have any chance at medium term survival or even a United Europe could go either way. India though a relatively robust technological economy but like China have the millstone of a poor massive underclass, endemic corruption and serious economic distortions, also have only a minimal chance to survive the next 80 years.
South America is already deep into depopulation and Africa is headed towards future starvation scenarios.
@ Aussie Infidel:
darwin.
This is interesting
Deputy AG, FBI director make unannounced visit to Paul Ryan’s office
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/03/ryan-rosenstein-wray-fbi-justice-322618
Rosenstein was spotted entering Ryan’s office, and a spokesman for the speaker confirmed that Rosenstein and Wray had requested the meeting. A second person familiar with the meeting said it was related to a document request issued over the summer by House intelligence committee chairman Devin Nunes.
Donuts to dollars they went in there with some BS excuse about why they can’t find the docs. And then Hillary’s house catches fire. HA!!
@ Aussie Infidel:
@ coldwarrior:
CW help me out with this, because I barely remember how to calc a standard diviation. Ok, I don’t remember, period. I don’t know how to say this but….
Take all the birth stats in Aussie’s piece and compare to rates say 600 yrs ago. The birth rate was higher but relatively few – compared to today – lived long enough to reproduce. Yet the world population trend line over time has been one of increase.
Today the birth rate is much lower but the chances of this cohort living long enough to reproduce is MUCH higher.
I guess I’m wondering if we’re comparing apples and oranges. I think perhaps we should compare not the birth rate but the number of people who reproduce reproducing offspring? A lot of women used to have 5-7 children, but only 2 lived to have their own children. Today women tend to have around 2 children and they almost certainly live long enough to reproduce and most likely will. I think. Maybe my premise/idea is wrong. I don’t know how to check it.
I’m not being very clear I know, but do you kind of get the idea?
@ Aussie Infidel:
Add in to that whole mess of cooked books in regards to census data. One person I follow has been stating for at least years that she believes that most census data, especially from third world countries is over estimated and none of it is an accurate by a long shot.
@ Aussie Infidel:
How many of the countries with birth rates higher than the replacement rate are Muslim?
@ eaglesoars:
as long as the reproduction rate for two paired adults is over a total of 2 the number of people will increase, the higher the number the faster and more exponential the increase is over time, especially over 300plus generations as you asked.
the stat that you need to look at is how many offspring had offspring and how many of each between the two dates of 600 years ago and now…or simply, how many people on the earth in each generation. you could do a line graph over time (each generation) on the x axis and number of people per each generation on the y axis and infer approximate birthrate.
there is no need to do a standard deviation or even a multivariate analysis as this is pretty much simple compounding interest.
if two peeps have 2 kids, and those two kids have two kids each etc then the rate explodes pretty quick…until you subtract the dead. so death rate per population by age/age per cohort(generation) is an important factor.
by limiting the data set to couples with percentage of total children who had children per generation, then you be at the nub of the question. how to get that data over 300plus generations? if you could get that data then you could do a distribution with standard deviation on each generation and then see the effect that that has on population growth.
-night!
@ coldwarrior:
I saw on the last thread that you got a call from a recruiter to work in Florida. Are you going to follow up on it?
coldwarrior wrote:
Afraid so. It seems that that gentleman just can’t be denied!
🙂
Happy New Years all… I thought the site shut down (glad it didn’t)
brookly red wrote:
Hey Brookly, welcome back to the Hood!
coldwarrior wrote:
yeah, that pretty much is what I was getting at, thanks. Except there is no such extent data set. What Aussie describes is a gradual crash. But we know of a time in history that saw a catastrophic crash – and repopulated. The plague in Europe. We don’t have real good numbers but we know from the survivors the scale. And of course, WW II. Anyhoo, thanks, nite.
brookly red wrote:
well, hello stranger! I don’t even see you much at zip’s place anymore, I thought you’d disappeared.
@ eaglesoars:
Like Cold said!
🙂
The stats data just aren’t there, and except for a few parish rolls in a VERY few Christian monarchies you’re just whistling in the wind.
I do know that the Great Black Death Plague of the 14th Century peaking about the 1350s when as few as 1/3 and as many as a half died, as well as the mid 17th century Plague event that killed off another 15%. That was significant as it ‘cleared the field’ for subsequent booms in ‘new blood’ and ideas.
As Cold said it’s just simple compounding of numbers per generation.
They study of modern demographics is quite complex as it involves many different drivers. Like the Chinese and Indian ‘experiment’ with massed abortion, favouring makes and in China’s part solo offspring. When the major controls came off recently in China the bounce back just didn’t happen, especially in the advanced part of technological China, where get ahead lifestyle beat out reproducing every time.
China will have a lack of ‘breeding’ females and a shortage of labour. India too is going to ‘wear’ the un-intended consequences of massive abortion programs sponsored by their governments. Europe’s descent into a demographic ‘death-spiral’ is guaranteed. With a chance that they may survive with technological production and massed immigration that will change the demographics of Europe. The collapse of the US is dependant on selective immigration of smart immigrants. The last thing the US or Europe needs is the arrival of masses of dumb dependant folks with equally dumb and ignorant attitudes / cultural perspectives towards education that will drag it into the demographic cesspool that both China and India face.
makes = males
right_wing2 wrote:
Well based on reliable data:-
Middle East 2.8
India Pakistan 2.6
Latin America 2.5
North America 2.1
WORLD AV 2.08
East Asia 1.7
Europe 1.6
Remember these stats were 2015 !
Buried inside these data show trends that show Latin America entering a massive depopulation event that’s happening soon
Europe also in a population decrease that’s getting steeper and more pronounced
The major ‘elephant in the room’ (pardon the pun) is Africa where population increases are on steroids!
That is where the full force of demographic tragedy will strike about the 2060s
Aussie Infidel wrote:
We already have that, we call it Baltimore, Detroit, etc.
More and more it looks like my lifespan will be exactly during the best time/place human civilization will ever offer, at least for a very long time
eaglesoars wrote:
Calculating deviations. (fx)2 where the sum of (fx)2 is dx over lambda times x-n over lambda2
Hope that helps.
Well, how on topic!
8,000 Years Ago, 17 Women Reproduced for Every One Man
Once upon a time, 4,000 to 8,000 years after humanity invented agriculture, something very strange happened to human reproduction. Across the globe, for every 17 women who were reproducing, passing on genes that are still around today—only one man did the same.
“It wasn’t like there was a mass death of males. They were there, so what were they doing?” asks Melissa Wilson Sayres, a computational biologist at Arizona State University, and a member of a group of scientists who uncovered this moment in prehistory by analyzing modern genes.
Another member of the research team, a biological anthropologist, hypothesizes that somehow, only a few men accumulated lots of wealth and power, leaving nothing for others. These men could then pass their wealth on to their sons, perpetuating this pattern of elitist reproductive success. Then, as more thousands of years passed, the numbers of men reproducing, compared to women, rose again. “Maybe more and more people started being successful,” Wilson Sayres says. In more recent history, as a global average, about four or five women reproduced for every one man.
harems
eaglesoars wrote:
8000 years ago… Much bonking on the heads of women with clubs, and dragging off to the back of the cave.
@ brookly red:
Glad to see you found your way back.
doriangrey wrote:
I found 2 things about that very odd: 4000 and 8000 years is quite a spread; and it’s GLOBAL??
eaglesoars wrote:
Looks like about half an hour ago Nunes announced he and Wray et. al. have come to an agreement about access to the FBI docs. I’m watching John Sullivan on Laura Ingraham’s show
doriangrey wrote:
lamda? In an SD calc?
Lamda is a farm animal with a dance routine. The only thing I remember about lamda is something about heat in some physics class they made me take, but that was before I sustained severe blood loss from slit wrists.
bedtime. nite.
eaglesoars wrote:
… and they know this how?
@ eaglesoars:
I thought lambdas were where gyrodas came from.
AZfederalist wrote:
Wikipedia, of course
Deplorable Barbarian wrote:
the man was a genius.
brookly red wrote:
*flashes appropriate gang sign*
@ brookly red:
hey brookly
good to see an old new face
eaglesoars wrote:
Mathematically Lambda is a fixed variable. In physic’s it is a wavelength, i.e. frequency. In statistics it represents a known constant. In the case of deviations its the base number from which the deviations are calculated from.
@ eaglesoars:
Here, we call it Los Angeles and Oakland.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/01/video-nfl-kneeler-league-ratings-plunged-10-2017/
@ Gateway Pundit
NFL ratings down 10 % in 2017.And Goodell gets a contract extension and more perks for ruining the brand?
They should have cracked down on player disrespect during the Anthem from the jump. Screw em.
EVERY American market index hits all time high. Haven’t seem them, but apparently the job numbers were very good
I read this as hinting that Bannon is out at Breitbart. Matt Drudge tweeted this this morning
em>The terrific Larry Solov and Susie Breitbart will take Breitbart into the fresh future. Has it really been 10 yrs since Andrew told me on Santa Monica pier he was going to do it?! His first hire Alex Marlow [he was 21] became one of the best news editors in the world! MORE
https://twitter.com/DRUDGE/status/948939676718530560
So you’ve heard about the Virginia House of Delegates race that’s tied and they counted like 3 times so they drew paper out of a hat.
The Republican won, Rs keep the majority.
phew!
Then this just happened:
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The senders email addy is
hqh9Jrk7Zv1kdh6SeZiwO@hqh9Jrk7Zv1kdh6SeZi.flfrzmhxklive.uk
Yep, looks legit
eaglesoars wrote:
I completely agree on Marlowe. He’s been the mainstay at the Breitbart Radio Broadcast on Sirius/XM and was probably the chief reason the show became popular enough to enjoy a daily slot in the a.m. PLUS weekends. Now that Bannon is “back” it’s ALLLLL about Bannon. I hope he IS out – I’d like to see Susie take it back and work with Alex to bring back Andy’s vision.
Looks like Comey’s theft of four FBI memos that he gave to his professor buddy to leak on his behalf apparently contained information SO sensitive and classified that Sen. Grassley had to be in a “secret room” to view them. And this is the guy who was lecturing Trump about ethics? Hey James – can you spell F-E-L-O-N-Y?
https://twitchy.com/dougp-3137/2018/01/04/report-about-ex-fbi-director-who-tweet-lectures-trump-about-ethical-leadership-is-stunning/
As usual, the Fabulous Ms. Attkisson is on the case.
@ Deplorable Barbarian:
who is Larry Solov?
I have to admit, looking at this logically, I find the entire Bannon thing very confusing. It seems everyone is accepting as truth everything Bannon supposedly said to Wolff, but characterize the remainder of the book as fiction. That said, what is coming out about Bannon from people who have worked with him is overwhelmingly damning and at some point, logic has to acknowledge experience. And CW and I both noticed that the leaks stopped after Bannon left.
Re: Comey. I’ve said before that this guy gives me VERY bad vibes, vibes along the lines of Robert Hanssen. Hanssen was an FBI guy who spied for the Russians for years and had the exact same messianic attitude. I’m not a Christian, but even so, I want to wave a crucifix around every time I see a pic of that guy.
Larry is a childhood friend of Andy’s who was Breitbart’s General Counsel and became CEO of Breitbart after Andy’s death. I have a feeling that Bannon edged him out on the day-to-day somehow and now Susie is, bless her, putting her foot down.
Maybe they can clean out the racist dirtbags who have infested the comments section like so many dirtbags.
@ eaglesoars:
It would not surprise me to learn that dirtbag Mueller had given Comey immunity….but the good news is the DOJ is reopening the Hillary email investigation. At least I THINK it’s good news.
There’s a lot of buzz over the “cease and desist” letter Trump’s legal team sent to the publisher and to Wolff over the forthcoming book. Which apparently has made them push the publication up a couple days. I’m sure the libturds will all buy it. Remember how they slathered over that disgraceful crapfest book by Kitty Kelly on the Bushes?
I’m sure they believe that they are protected by the New York Times v. Sullivan decision that makes it next to impossible to “defame” a public official. But, like Plessy, it is crying out for a good case to overturn it. I thought maybe Sarah Palin could have pulled it off with her recent lawsuit – but I guess she didn’t appeal the ruling on the 12(b)(6) motion to dismiss. No doubt the 2nd Circuit would have upheld the ruling, but at least that would have given it a path to SCOTUS. Because I think if the High Court accepted a case that would overturn Sullivan on cert, it would be because the conservative bench has the votes to finally get rid of this exercise in bad law.
Deplorable Barbarian wrote:
Bring the case anyway even if it gets thrown out. Discovery would be karma on krak
@ eaglesoars:
Oh the BEST part of any case is discovery….Wolff would have to produce his notes. This isn’t “sources” and free press. You wrote a book for money. You have these sources. Produce them. Then DEPOSE them.
Is Wolff a British citizen? I keep hearing that the Guardian is involved. If he is, sue him in the Queen’s Bench. There is no SULLIVAN decision to protect him there.
@ Deplorable Barbarian:
He’s American. You might be able to stop publication in the UK, but welcome to the innernut!
@ eaglesoars:
Too bad. My understanding is that this Wolff jerk is famous for lying and making crap up. If I were his publisher, I’d be very, very worried about the veracity of Wolff’s book and my liability for it. This isn’t Bush, and they need to understand this. For once, you have a Republican President that punches right the hell back.
I have a feeling Bannon is going to wish he’d stayed on Wall Street after this is all over.
________________
Wolff may be in for some real problems. Already Thomas Barrack is claiming that a quote attributed to him is a lie. I doubt Barrack falls under Sullivan. I think we may be seeing a multi-plaintiff lawsuit over this. This is what I don’t get – everything I see about Wolff says that he has a reputation for lying and making things up. And a publisher thought this was a GOOD idea? Jesus, libel and slander are real torts, you idiots.
@ Deplorable Barbarian:
What I’ve read of Wolff is that he’s sloppy about backing things up. Direct quotes may or may not be, etc. However, he’s on the record saying he’s got stuff on tape. He may be sorry for that because that’s the first thing a lawyer is going to go after. I’m sure his publisher looked at the odds and said, who the hell is going to have pockets deep enough to sue, yeah we can cover this. And maybe they can. But there are so many assertions in the book that are obviously false – Trump didn’t know who John Boehner is – that it’s difficult to believe any of if. Of course, Wolff is quoting someone saying that. Unfortunately, Bannon is not disavowing any of it. Fortunately, other people are characterizing items attributed to them as lies. Wolff makes Kitty Kelly look like The Encyclopedia Britannica. Do you really believe that Trump didn’t believe he’d win, that he didn’t WANT to win, that he ran a ‘listless’ campaign? I mean, so much is so obviously garbage – but everyone is taking everything from Bannon as gospel.
whew
the girl made a big ol pot of homemade soup and man was it good
just the thing on a cold winters night
@ rain of lead:
RECIPE!!
One of the best presents I got this year was from my niece, who gave me the Pioneer Woman’s cookbook. The stuff is so simple. I made her hamburger soup last nite and it was really good. Sheet pan shrimp tonite, 10 minutes flat.
Wow. Downtown Boston is flooded
https://twitter.com/NewsAlertHQ/status/949054827098722304
BREAKING: Fusion GPS has to turn over its bank records. TA DA!!
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/01/04/breaking-district-court-judge-rules-fusion-gps-must-turn-over-bank-records/
eaglesoars wrote:
Ditto on the recipe. I’m always on for a great soup recipe. Nothing makes a house smell as good as a stewpot simmerin’
@ eaglesoars:
Oh Momma! This is going to get interesting. Because it isn’t a lawyer that’s going to go through this – it’s an effing FORENSIC ACCOUNTANT.
Deplorable Barbarian wrote:
want the recipe for hamburger soup?
As for the Fusion bank records – if they’ve got stuff stashed overseas, it may not be easy to get them. But the gov’t could freeze those accts, I would think, so they can’t be moving money around
Deplorable Barbarian wrote:
The racism in the comments over there are beyond subtle, they are overt.
@ eaglesoars:
sure
hers was italian sausage soup
@ rain of lead:
oooo – does it have tortellini in it?
Interesting
Peter Thiel Planning Launch Of Conservative News Outlet With Mercer Family After Bannon Fiasco
Thiel is the guy who financed the lawsuit that wiped out Gawker.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-04/peter-thiel-planning-launch-conservative-news-outlet-mercers-family-after-bannon
https://www.weaselzippers.us/370011-nhs-orders-britain-to-cancel-50000-surgeries-as-third-world-conditions-devastate-hospitals/
@ WZ
Here is the kind of health system Obama and the Dems tried to foist on America.
We better vote to keep them out in 2020,or they will walk us down this path.
@ eaglesoars:
nope
some zucchini and other stuff
rain of lead wrote:
cook much?
This should be fun.
[Tom} Steyer will “make a major announcement regarding his political future and plans for 2018” Monday in Washington, D.C., his press release said. A U.S. Senate seat and the governorship are both up for grabs this year back in his home state of California, but it is notable that Steyer will be making his announcement in Washington rather than in the Golden State.
make him spend it all
http://freebeacon.com/politics/steyer-make-major-announcement-political-future/
holy hell…it is sooo cold out there!
Job-cut announcements in 2017 see lowest level since 1990, Challenger report says
helllooo….nevertrumpers…..
US private sector added 250,000 jobs in Dec, vs estimate of 190,000: ADP
coldwarrior wrote:
And that is why I live in Southern California.
doriangrey wrote:
i mean DANGEROUS KILL YOU STONE DEAD COLD!
@ eaglesoars:
finally found it
soup link
http://allrecipes.com/recipe/12942/italian-sausage-soup/
coldwarrior wrote:
we’re under a wind advisory right now, apparently thru the nite. It is howling out there. 40 mph gusts.
It’s so cold in Florida that iguanas are falling from their perches in suburban trees.
https://www.apnews.com/dbdbdea7f924439bb93b9f3939cb2b77/It's-so-cold-in-Florida,-iguanas-are-falling-from-trees?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP
eaglesoars wrote:
how much snow didja get?
rain of lead wrote:
oh, that sounds EXCELLENT, thank you! That’s a nice site, I’ve used it before.
Here’s Pioneer Woman’s hamburger soup. She uses 3 cups of broth but I used 4 and I’m glad I did. You’ve got more to dunk those buttered dinner rolls in.
http://thepioneerwoman.com/cooking/hamburger-soup/
The recipe serves 12 so it’s really easy to cut in half. I made the full thing to freeze some.
@ eaglesoars:
can we make a really bad movie and call it iguana-nado?
coldwarrior wrote:
not more than an inch and a half. hard to tell because it’s been drifting, but when the neighbor hauled her snowblower out this morning it was about an inch. We’ve had a bit more since. It really is too cold to snow much.
Our neighbor is a hoot. She’s a farm girl from Mississippi and that damn snowblower is her favorite toy. She was out there at 8 am having the time of her life.
eaglesoars wrote:
Can totally relate to that. Having come from a farm, when we moved onto acreage in Arizona, being able to get a real tractor and do stuff has been great. Even when the tractors are acting more like boat anchors. Just something in your blood I guess.
@ AZfederalist:
We had a 1958 Ford 800 at home (couple of horses and 10 acres) that my Granddad (who was a welder at Westinghouse) put a homemade bucket lift on the front of that was actually still working as of 2003 when it was sold, and on the actual farm I worked for 8 years between HS and college we had a Ford 3000, a 4000, and a newer 5800.
God, I miss tractors.
Deplorable Bumr50 wrote:
you and my husband both. He and his family used John Deere and another make I can’t remember – the name begins with an ‘A’ – on their farms. He has like 15 model tractors/equipment on a table in his office, all John Deere. Collects the stuff.
@ eaglesoars:
Allis-Chalmers.
Don’t take me to a fair.
She just laughs, until she gets hungry or bored or both…
Deplorable Bumr50 wrote:
THAT’S IT!!
Hubby goes to the ag fair at The Grange in Harrisburg next week. I’ve been a couple times, I love it
@ eaglesoars:
john deere green
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6AwQPW6myWo
This. Just. Sucks.
HBO confirms its medieval fantasy blockbuster Game Of Thrones won’t return to the small screen until 2019
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-5236915/HBOs-blockbuster-Game-Thrones-set-return-2019.html#ixzz53HKMJ5HF
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
@ eaglesoars:
I’d love to go to the PA Farm Show sometime, not sure if the Grange shindig is related but it’s close and also next week.
rain of lead wrote:
Joe Diffe! I love him. “Just Like the Beatles” – one of my first C&W crushes
@ rain of lead:
The only John Deere vehicle I ever drove was a bulldozer. I don’t know what year it was built, but it was a tracked vehicle and it was FUN.
As far as tractors go, I’m a Ford guy. I guess I’m SOL since they don’t make them anymore, unless I settle for a New Holland…
We’ll see…
Scientists create a ‘better’ opioid that relieves pain without being addictive – a breakthrough that could put an end to the deadly crisis sweeping America
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-5235677/Scientists-create-better-opioid-not-addictive.html#ixzz53HM3awtT
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
eaglesoars wrote:
That’s EXACTLY what they said about OxyContin.
Deplorable Bumr50 wrote:
I did not know that. Just from an evolutionary perspective, as pain is so necessary to survival, if you shut down those receptors or interfere with them somehow, there is going to be a downside SOMEWHERE, even if it’s not addiction.
Deplorable Bumr50 wrote:
No, they don’t make them anymore, but there are lots of older ones out there. For fun, take a look at http://www.tractorshed.com/cgi-bin/photoads/classifieds.cgi
@ rain of lead:
Don’t give them ideas. I’ve expected Bearalanche and Pumaquake.
coldwarrior wrote:
Yes, that’s it exactly. That’s why I live in Southern California.
https://twitter.com/OscarWildeGrey/status/949263137223598081
https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2018/01/04/wait-is-this-cold-snap-just-weather-or-is-it-part-of-the-climate-crisis-al-gore-advises/
@Twitchy
Good morning. Al Gore explains the cold weather to the tired , huddled masses who do not have a grip on science
like Al and Charles Foster Johnson. And to back him up he references…. wait for it……..Michael Man!
The same guy of the hockey stick ruse.
This is just a stunningly beautiful photograph. Kylemore Abbey, Ireland, in winter.
https://twitter.com/RTECountryWide/status/949269124273852416
somebody has called into the Chris Plante show. He has an accent, hard to understand. But he says Bannon told him the book is a lie and he’s considering a lawsuit. e.g., the story that he said the said the mtg w/Russians was treason, what he actually said was that it could be perceived as treasonous. The guy’s name is Louis somebody and Chris Plante says he’s a friend.
fwiw
So I had this weird dream this morning, but I figure that coldwarrior will find it amusing so I shall relate it.
In this dream, I was playing guitar with Donnie Iris, and Donnie said something, so I changed the way I was playing, and started playing with my fingers, just goofing off, and Donnie responded by saying…
Would you quit playing like Eddie Van Malmsteem, nobody else can play that shit. So of course, I started playing a Van Halen/Malmsteen/Joe Satriani mash up style. Donnie rolled is eyes at me and said I was a nut. It was very funny to me But probably speaks of some deep personal security issues.
Oh god. It’s so cold. There are 2 squirrels sitting on top of the fence not moving, just curled up. They’re not in their nests where they could get some protection from the wind, they’re just sitting, helpless
eaglesoars wrote:
Aaron Worthing said on Twitter this morning that Wolff had essentially admitted that some of the things he said were not true, and that this negates any “absence of malice” defense.
Supposedly, Wolff says he has tapes, and supposedly the publisher said they had verified stuff (HOW?) but it may be a bluff. There’s already a story from the book about Trump and the “Gorilla Channel” that not even that clown Toure on MSNBC believes.
I suspect some very thorough lawyers are going to be spending the playoffs in their offices going through this book chapter by chapter. It would not surprise me if, a week from now, a multi-plaintiff defamation and libel suit was filed in District Court.
Even if China wanted to tell the truth, they have no idea what it is
China Admits 2016 GDP Was “Miscalculated” After “Routine Vertification
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-05/china-admits-2016-gdp-was-miscalculated-after-routine-vertification
I have a question. IIRC, the ADP jobs numbers and the BLS jobs numbers have never been the same, but relatively close. Not this time. Yesterday ADP reported a 250k added jobs numbers and the stock indices soared. Today, the BLS reported 140K – a 110k difference AND lower than expected. Why the huge discrepancy? I don’t think I’ve ever seen that before.
@ Deplorable Barbarian:
AH! There you are! Yes, he wrote a forward, and I think the Business Insider has it, I’ll see if I can find it again. I don’t think he’s protected under Sullivan if he knowingly prints what he believes to be falsehoods.
Here it is
http://www.businessinsider.com/michael-wolff-note-says-he-doesnt-know-if-trump-book-is-all-true-2018-1
“Many of the accounts of what has happened in the Trump White House are in conflict with one another; many, in Trumpian fashion, are baldly untrue. These conflicts, and that looseness with the truth, if not with reality itself, are an elemental thread of the book.
“Sometimes I have let the players offer their versions, in turn allowing the reader to judge them. In other instances I have, through a consistency in the accounts and through sources I have come to trust, settled on a version of events I believe to be true.”
Think about this. According to the book, Trump did not think he would win, did not want to win, and ran a listless campaign
But he colluded with the Russians to steal the election
I think everybody was so quick to jump on the Bannon gallows, they inadvertently gave this piece of garbage credibility it doesn’t deserve
@ eaglesoars:
I think that if he wrote falsely about people who are NOT by definition “public figures” – and if some of the people who came forward yesterday to comment are to be believed, that is exactly what he did – he is afforded NO protection under Sullivan for the misstatements he made about them. Hence my belief that lawyers are combing the pages not for statements made by Trump, but by others where he has them disparaging Trump. Bannon may very well be an injured party here.
Oh, and this is rich – he apparently relates a conversation between Trump and Melania WHEN THEY WERE ALONE in the residence. Oh effing puhleeze, Mary.
This isn’t a politician he’s messing with – this is a guy who punches back. Obama and Clinton books were researched meticulously. This dirtbag thought he could throw garbage out there and like previous tell-alls, nothing would happen. This is Donald Trump, turnip brain. He IS the STORM.
https://twitchy.com/dougp-3137/2018/01/05/bwa-ha-ha-fake-fire-and-fury-excerpt-takes-twitter-by-hilarious-storm/
@ Twitchy
This is a really clever parody.
@ RIX:
OMG – I was fooled this morning!
I remember when the MSM was so excited to read and report on the revelations about the Clintons in the following books:
Blood Sport
The Year of the Rat
Absolute Power
Clinton Cash
Oh, you don’t remember them, either?
@ RIX:
that was swallowed hook, line and sinker by the usual crowd. But they’re the ‘experts’ who will not have their judgement on anything questioned
More settled science
Ancient DNA Reveals a Completely Unknown Population of Native Americans
In a new study published this week, the team reports that a genetic analysis of sunrise girl-child’s DNA shows she belonged to a forgotten people called the Ancient Beringians, unknown to science until now.
Before now, there were only two recognised branches of early Native Americans (referred to as Northern and Southern). But when the researchers sequenced sunrise girl-child’s genome – the earliest complete genetic profile of a New World human to date – to their surprise it matched neither.
Using genetic analysis and demographic modelling, the team concludes a single founding ancestral Native American group split from East Asians around 35,000 years ago, most likely somewhere in north-east Asia.
At some point, it’s suspected these people moved as one in a single mass migration into North America, before – some 15,000 years or so later – the population split into two groups.
One of the groups became the Ancient Beringians – the other group were the ancestors of all other Native Americans – although it remains possible this division was already occurring before the Bering Land Bridge was crossed.
http://www.sciencealert.com/dna-11-000-years-ago-reveals-origins-native-americans-ancient-beringians
Grassley and Graham have sent a letter to DOJ asking for prosecution of Christopher Steele for lying to committee
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/05/us/politics/christopher-steele-dossier-judiciary-committee.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur
@ eaglesoars:
It’s interesting to note that the MSM cares more about what is in large part of work of fiction about the sitting President than the sinister methodology in obtaining surveillance of same by his predecessor.
Richard Nixon was an amateur compared to Obama.
eaglesoars wrote:
That is incorrect, the mistake is mine. The committee never interviewed Steele. What they did do is interview the FBI people and compare their testimony with docs submitted about what the FBI said Steele told them.
They don’t agree.
Grassley and Graham know somebody lied and it’s the FBI who did. The request to refer Steele for prosecution is a ploy. If the FBI does it, they will have to discover the lies the FBI told.
Conservative Treehouse has it
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/949362288414412800.html
This document is dated Dec 22 2017 from the Dept of Interior. I can’t understand the legalese but according to Steve Malloy of JunkScience, it effectively rescinds all the Obama ‘climate change’ policies of the Dept. Interior
https://junkscience.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Interior-order-scrapping-Obama-climate-policies.pdf
Josh Mandel, Ohio Treas and a Republican, was going to run for the Senate against Sherrod Brown. His wife has developed a health condition and Mandel has dropped out.
Guess who’s rumored to run instead. The mailman’s kid.
shoot me now.
eaglesoars wrote:
Our new place at Ngarimu Bay starred front page on the National Daily the NZ Herald for all the wrong reasons. Monster storm meet King Tide. The beach is underwater. The road is out to sea and we are now … the coast!
🙂
Our building platform is 20 feet above sea level so we are just fine. The garden has looked better but we’re all OK. Stranded by the disappearance of most of State Highway 25 into the sea but just fine.
Hopefully a few high tides will bring all of the beach sand back but currently I can launch a boat from my front boundary….. not that I would be that crazy just now!
🙂
@ Aussie Infidel:
is that where you are RIGHT NOW?? You should see Boston. Full moon/high tide and they got 15 ft ice floods. I cannot even imagine the structural damage from that. My family lost just about everything in a November flood (known as the Election Day Flood) but we didn’t have that damn ice to deal with
eaglesoars wrote:
Wasn’t that a Jimmy Buffett song? “Son of a Son of a Mailman?”
here are some pics of Boston. I have to get this family fed. later
@ Deplorable Barbarian:
ha! I have no idea.
OMG, mostly because the rest of Wolff’s book is so preposterious, a Starbucks-deficient me actuall fell for the Gorilla story initially…..
But leave it to our funny folks on Conservative Twitter…..going one better and giving us the laffs for Friday:
https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2018/01/05/harambe-five-o-twitter-comes-up-with-some-hilarious-new-gorillachannelshows/
You guys are such a brutal audience.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeDylD8dV7U
Deplorable Barbarian wrote:
Watergate was good for the dems in two ways, 1) It cemented their power for at least 10 more years to the extent we even got Jimmy Carter and 2) They learned from the mistakes Nixon and his minions made. No, the dems didn’t learn what was wrong about what the Nixon White House did but what they did wrong that got them caught. … and made sure they don’t make those same mistakes.
How very true.
All of the times that I decided to ‘GO AROUND’ I did. That’s why I’m here folks!
🙂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lr5d3sGxSXQ
@ doriangrey:
😆
donnie!
we are going to his 75th birthday concert in february. 75 years, wtill rockin!
eaglesoars wrote:
ADP reports the number of actual paychecks.
the other guesstimates
@ AZfederalist:
Indeed, but just as Nixon wanted to run against McGovern, and the fatal flaw being the discovered breakin, the Democrats and Hillary wanted the same thing – they wanted Trump to be the nominee – they thought he’d be so easy to beat – a bombastic outsider who had a reality show and from all accounts an oversized ego and vocabulary permanently set to “Hyperbole.”
So Obama, Hillary and their co-horts in Justice and the FBI weren’t all that worried when stories of the Clinton’s “pay for play” and stories of Obama’s “surviellance” and “FISA warrants” surfaced. Once Hillary was safely elected, all the misdeeds and illegals activities would form a nice big pile under the throw rug they were swept under.
Except the American people could not stomach a woman they KNEW was in essence a criminal bitch to occupy the Oval Office.
Thye only time I was on an aircraft that didn’t go around when it should have was a Boeing 747-200. The ‘cunt-struck’ captain was DETERMINED to get into Auckland after 10 days away in zero-zero conditions when the aircraft was certified but age airfield wasn’t. At 300 feet I was calling the instruments with my head down where it should be. The bloody captain called VISUAL when he wasn’t. I felt the Flight engineer tense and then call “I have no visual” by then we were 100 feet. I was startled to say the least and took a peep and saw ZIP. About then we hit the runway … thankfully … but way off centreline .I then looked up and saw NOTHING but some VERY close runway edge lights flashing past just outboard of the cockpit, so our port wheel bogies must have been right on the edge of the ‘hard’. There was NOTHING out front just Runway lights coming into visual just as we passed them. We were still doing 150 knots and how we stayed on the ‘hard’ I’ll never know but we edged the aircraft back onto the centreline and then crept forward to try to find a Runway exit. I told the Captain as did the Flight Engineer that we’d NEVER NEVER fly with him again and that he almost killed 300 innocent folks just to satisfy his carnal lusts and if he EVER saw us re-rostered with us he was to go ‘sick’. The alternative was his reporting, investigation, trial and dismissal. Neither the engineer nor myself ever flew with that idiot again. The moron was sweating buckets, shaking like a leaf as we taxied in and I think he’d learned his lesson.
Sheesh!
You can ALWAYS go around.
https://thegatewaypundit.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=a1f9b29171f5fb45edb2520ae&id=c8d9c039a2&e=d43a186674
@ Gateway Pundit
This when Karma really bites.
RIX wrote:
Funny thing is, the same idiots claim that the college has no power over them because they are adults. This lawsuit is saying that the college should have behaved as a parent telling them not to play in the street.
eaglesoars wrote:
i dont trust bannon, he is a cruzbot first and foremost a CONservative (r) ™ . he only jumped on the MAGA/trump movement when his guy lost because he needed to monetarise something from this campaign for his own gain.
So Brad Thor and especially Max Boot have turned out to be MAJOR disappointments as human beings, I guess.
@ AZfederalist:
Not a street. A freeway.
coldwarrior wrote:
I don’t either, not anymore after listening to people who have worked with and known him. But that’s my point – Bannon was such a draw, the rest of the book was given credibility. NOW it seems that’s changing, thankfully. More than a few people have been exposed as credulous dupes who bleed ‘stupid’, others as simply malign human beings. Air has been cleared, lines redrawn.
Deplorable Bumr50 wrote:
Brad Thor got to the point of believing his own PR. I read his last book because I love the dogs. It was purely formulaic and the dogs weren’t there. Done. Max Boot has never been anything but a dork guy trying to get laid by pretending he’s really really smart, and he’s got a vicious streak that betrays him every time. He will ALWAYS to try hang out with ‘the popular kids’ and modulate his performance accordingly. He has no core.
AZfederalist wrote:
That is the irony. It’s like putting a gun to your head and demanding “Stop me or I”ll shoot”
@ AZfederalist:
This is California – a school’s duty to act in loco parentiis ends at 18.
I remember how the MSM excoriated Peter Schreiber for “Clinton Cash” – claiming that since he didn’t have subpoena power, how could he have any of this information. If he went on the liberal shows, they excoriated him as a fraud trying to smear the Clintons.
But enter Michael Wolff, who produces a work that even HE admits is “his” version of the facts, a work that essentially belongs in the fiction aisle at Barnes and Noble, next to “Harry Potter” or “A Song of Ice and Fire.” And the MSM laps it up as if it’s the Sermon on the Mount.
Deplorable Barbarian wrote:
Wolff wrote Mark Berman, WaPo national reporter had breakfast at the Four Seasons.
Mark Berman on twitter :(I have never had breakfast at the Four Seasons, never actually been there) (but now I wonder if I can use this to go eat there and expense it?)
https://twitter.com/markberman/status/949407967966834688
Update to this thread: Turns out the person actually having breakfast at the Four Seasons that day was the lobbyist Mike Berman, who confirms to me he was there the same day as Ivanka
———–
And it turns out I can also say with 100% certainty again I wasn’t at the Four Seasons that morning because it turns out this breakfast was the same morning my kid was being born, per this story.
https://twitter.com/markberman/status/949434302265286657
@ eaglesoars:
I have a feeling Congressional Democrats are going to have collective egg on their faces the day they call Bannon in to testify and he basically tells them Wolff is full of crap. They are ready to subpoena people to testify before Congress because of this book? The embarrassment will be legend.
Oh, and just to “brag” a little, here’s a Forbes article on the campaign of Jeffrey Bleich, running for Lt. Gov. of California, who asks me for the conservtaive take on issues, and not in a condescending way:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ronakdesai/2018/01/02/why-president-obamas-ambassador-to-australia-is-running-for-lt-governor-of-california/2/#50175f42155b
Deplorable Barbarian wrote:
where? In the article? I didn’t see it.
Deplorable Barbarian wrote:
Which is ironic because so many of the actual parents in California are loco…
This is twitter-verified-blue-checked Netflix
Netflix US: please stop calling our customer service hotline to ask if we have The Gorilla Channel
https://twitter.com/netflix/status/949449196536393728
*thunk*
Deplorable Barbarian wrote:
wanna see the Dems implode? Have them – including and ESPECIALLY Maxine Waters, and all the impeachment nutcases- call in Wolff for a public hearing about his book. Let the world see what crap this is. While they’re having their little teenage soap opera, Trump will be getting stuff done.
Deplorable Barbarian wrote:
These are the same people who called in Sally Field and Maryl Streep to testify during agriculture hearings because they both played farm characters in movies. These people are incapable of embarrassment
AZfederalist wrote:
And in her newest role, Streep plays dumb
eaglesoars wrote:
That’s not acting.
@ AZfederalist:
Well done!
I am off to read. nite.
@ lobo91:
… and anyone believes anything that bloody Tony Blair tells them. The guy is a liar of the first water who’d sell his grandmother down the river for the price of a good breakfast.
Why is this even news/
Everyone knows that GCSB monitors ALL communications within the US under a mandate from the 5 Eyes and as part of a ‘deniability agreement’ where none of the 5 Eyes members spy directly on their own citizens but through a surrogate member who then swaps data sets.
Even a One World Government toad knows that as does everyone else. Why is this even news?
@ eaglesoars:
nite Eagles
🙂
Stay warm.
Melting here … humidity