If the Syrian War appears very similar to the post colonial African wars, it’s because they have a common origin. Like Africa, The UK and France carved up the region and created countries by lines drawn up by them. Many of the countries they created were artificial and did not reflect religious nor ethnic differences. Syria is perfect example of a nation drawn up without reflecting the reality. The war there reflects the crackup of these artificial Mideast nations.
Expect major tears in the map of the Middle East this summer and fall, as states created by outsiders a century ago finally rip apart.
“Nations” better understood as “tribes with flags” are unlikely to survive the two-year (and counting) bloodbath in Syria and the rising violence in Iraq. Or the turmoils in Bahrain and Yemen and the flood of refugees into Jordan — you name it. It even looks like we’ll see the emergence of independent Kurdistan.
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About then, the Syria war seems likely to transition to partition, as the breakup of Sykes-Picot gets in high gear.
Sykes-Picot? Go back to 1916, when diplomats Sir Mark Sykes of Britain and Francois Georges Picot of France signed a secret agreement to divide the region after their nations won World War I.
The deal created national borders out of thin air, drawing lines to suit the needs and whims of the Europeans — and mostly ignoring on-the-ground ethnic, religious and sectarian realities.
The Brits and French withdrew by mid-century, replaced by Arab kings, dictators and tyrants. But the Sykes-Picot maps remained, defining the new states’ borders.
Until the Arab Spring moved from countries like Egypt and Tunisia (states not dreamed up by Sykes and Picot) to places like Bahrain and Yemen — where the upheavals triggered deeper internal religious, sectarian and tribal divisions.
Similar in-country sectarian unease had already started to undo the state of Iraq, as we left it to its own devices.
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Armed stalement is still the most likely outcome — with a de facto breakup of Syria into Kurdish, Sunni and Allawite mini-states.
Moscow won’t mind: Assad will rule a Damascus-coastal corridor, where most Alawites live, so Russia will keep its influence and its naval base in Tartous.
Iran’s “Shiite crescent” will remain intact, too — from Lebanon through Assadistan into southern Iraq.
But Sunnis will control most of the rest of current Syria, giving the Turks, Saudis and Qataris their piece of the action. Kurdistan will be carved out of current Syria and broken Iraq.
Key Sykes-Picot borders will be gone — with Jordan likely teetering and “central” governments in states like Yemen and Lebanon largely impotent.
The Collapse of the Mideast is the best geostrategic gift to the US since the end of the Cold War. With the Islamic savages killing each other, they will not have time to bother us. The US has gained nothing out of the Mideast and lost much. There is a reason why part of my family left that region more than 100 years ago. The best course of action is to isolate that region and let it implode.
Addedum:
Hizb’Allahs’ forces are still stuck fighting at the Syrian border town of Al Qusasyr. The Lebanese Shia terror group assumed that it would be an easy victory. Instead the Syrian rebels led by Al Nusra has put up a surprising prepared the defense and the battle has turned into a quagmire for the Hezzies. Unlike fighting Israel who values human life, they have met an enemy in Al Nusra who love death more than them. The result is that Hizb’Allah is now in unafmailiar territory fighting a more ruthless enemy.
Those, like Mahdi, who have fought in Syria, acknowledge that the Syrian rebels have been capable fighters and that for the first time, Hezbollah is facing an enemy of the same ideological caliber and with the same kind of training.
“One must say that they are very well trained and very well-equipped,” Mahdi said. “They own state-of-the-art sniper guns; this is how they’ve hunted down our fallen comrades.”
The frequency of funerals for Hezbollah fighters who have died in Syria significantly increased after the battle of Qusair. Countless posters of “Hezbollah martyrs” line the north-south Bekaa Valley highway that leads to Baalbek.
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Jawad maintained that the rebel Free Syrian Army was “totally powerless,” arguing that the extremist Nusra Front was leading the fighting.
“They [rebels] are powerful not only because they apparently have very good training and very sophisticated weaponry,” Jawad said, citing the brutality of Chechen fighters among the ranks of the Nusra Front.
“Nusra is strong because [the fighters] are fearless. I can sense that from the way they launch raids against us,” Jawad continued. “It’s like they really don’t care if they die. They are ruthless and fearless.”
Both Jawad and Mahdi confirmed that many of their comrades were killed in ambushes that were strikingly similar to tactics Hezbollah originally devised when it fought the Israeli army in south Lebanon during the occupation and later on during the 2006 summer war.
“There’s a kind of irritating familiarity,” Jawad noted. “Hezbollah taught Hamas all those tactics to fight the Israelis. Hamas apparently decided to transfer their experience to takfiri groups.”
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When they were in Qusair, the Hezbollah fighters, who were interviewed separately in Beirut and Hermel, said some of the practices of the Nusra Front fighters left them “speechless.”
Besides the booby-trapped hideouts they leave behind, Nusra fighters have a disconcerting night-time ritual, they said.
“At night they burn the corpses that have accumulated during the day,” Abbas said.
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“Takfiris have no respect for the land or for human dignity. They are doing monstrous things,” Jawad said. “At least Israelis put our martyrs in coffins and number them.”
Israel should pay attaention at the developmenets of the battle of Al Qusasyr. Al Nusra is giving the blueprint of how to defeat Hizb’Allah. ALso, the tactics and skills of Al Nusra should be studied in case the IDF ever has to face this organization in battle. One thing for certain, Hizb’Allah is not an offensive force and can’t even do a seige correctly. Rebels from the FSA and Al Nusra have broken through the seige and have reinforceed their positions in that town.
May they continue to kill each other.
