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  • Far Ranging Open…Monday.

    by coldwarrior ( 80 Comments › )
    Filed under Media, Open thread at September 16th, 2019 - 7:46 am

    Good Morning yinz, I am headed into 8 of 9 days working so any help would be greatly appreciated.

    Let’s get to it…Dorian has a guest post here:

    …The American media relies on the very US Constitution it seeks to overthrow to protect it even as it undermines the rule of law of which the United States Constitution is the foundation of in the United States. There comes a time when the scared villagers seeing that they will receive no redress of their grievances from the law, collectively make the decision to address those grievances themselves…

    AND…a little on the opiate crisis and lawsuits that are working their way through the system.

    PLEASE read both entries in full so that you start to get the gist of all this:

    According to a lawsuit filed by the Massachusetts attorney general, the company pushed big sales of OxyContin from the start. Doing so meant persuading doctors who had been reluctant to prescribe such strong painkillers that this one was safe.

    A court filing asserts that Richard Sackler, then a senior vice president in charge of sales at the company, told the sales force at a launch party for the drug: “The launch of OxyContin Tablets will be followed by a blizzard of prescriptions that will bury the competition. The prescription blizzard will be so deep, dense, and white.”

    Along with others in the industry, Purdue paid doctors who attested to the drug’s safety and became a major funder of groups that advocated for pain patients and campaigned to have opioids prescribed.

    The Associated Press and the Center for Public Integrity found the industry and groups it funded were also politically active, spending more than $880 million nationally on lobbying and campaigns from 2006 through 2015. That spending helped the industry fight off restrictions on prescribing the powerful painkillers.

    The Joint Commission, the bureaucrats who come in and tell you how to run your hospital or you get no Medicare money, are at the ROOT LEVEL of this opiate scourge as they DEMANDED that pain be The 5th Vital sign. I want to know who was taking payoffs over at Joint from the Pharma Companies. Frankly, The Joint has lost pretty much all respect after this from the Medical Community.

    EVERYONE in the medical community that the Joint standards were going to cause addiction rates to skyrocket. EVERYONE.

    NCAA Football Week 3 2019, OPEN THREAD

    by coldwarrior ( 108 Comments › )
    Filed under College Football, Open thread at September 14th, 2019 - 12:49 am

    O P E N T H R E A D

    Last week we were 2/7, for a total of 4/10. $800/$1000, Vinnie decided to go easy on me and just broke one of my kneecaps…he’s a good Pisan. Oddly, It’s much harder to find Vinnie when I’m winning…

    Let’s take a look at what’s on offer today, but first a definition so that peeps can follow this nonsense:

    It’s like Wall Street without the suits…well, without the non-pin-striped suits. Here is a definition: Point Spread: Also known as the line or spread, it is a number chosen by Las Vegas and overseas oddsmakers that will encourage an equal number of people to wager on the underdog as on the favorite. If fans believe that Team A is two touchdowns better than Team B, they may bet them as 14-point favorites. In a point spread, the negative value (-14) indicates the favorite and the positive value (+14) indicates the underdog. Betting a -14 favorite means the team must win by at least 15 points to cover the point spread. The +14 underdog team can lose by 13 points and still cover the spread.

    Wall Street is legalized, encouraged, and institutional gambling. Betting on college ball is legal, but you are betting on 20 year old kids, hence the reason I don’t use real money! All bets are $100 unless otherwise noted.

    Pittsburgh at #13 Penn State – Sat, Sep 14, 12:00 PM ET…my Beloved Panthers are 17 Point dogs at Ceasar’s. This used to be a YUGE rivalry until the Bastard Joe Paterno killed it, and the dream of a WVU-PITT-PSU led division with his bare hands. I was at PITT when it happened and heard it straight from my friend, Chancellor Emeritus, Wesley Posvar. I get a tear in my eye every time I see his picture. The day he died is the day my PhD died…I was working on Islamic funding of terror. Everything dried up after is death as he, and a professor from Israel who will remain nameless were my only champions. I would go to his house once a week to work on data and get advice. His wife was gracious and a lovely person too. A glass of wine was always ready. They liked me for some reason. Anyway, before I bore yinz to tears, PSU beats the spread.

    #21 Maryland at Temple – Sat, Sep 14, 12:00 PM ET…Maryland looks like they are for real…Caesar’s has them as 6 point favorites and they beat the spread in Philly.

    Stanford at #17 UCF – Sat, Sep 14, 3:30 PM ET…The betting houses are pretty much settled on The Cardinal as a 9 point dog, UCF beats this spread.

    #24 USC at BYU – Sat, Sep 14, 3:30 PM ET…USC beat the dog snot out of the formerly ranked Cardinal last week. They beat the spread again of 4.

    #19 Iowa at Iowa State – Sat, Sep 14, 4:00 PM ET…This is smash-mouth, corn-grown, rivalry football in the mid-west right here. I will watch this game in it’s entirety. The Hawkeyes are giving 1…1 point. They cover.

    Kent State at #8 Auburn – Sat, Sep 14, 7:00 PM ET…WHY? Really, why?

    Incarnate Word has a bye this week…even GOD needs to rest.

    9/11 Anniversary and Open

    by coldwarrior ( 95 Comments › )
    Filed under Academia, Cold War, Economy, History, Islam, Open thread, September 11, Terrorism at September 11th, 2019 - 2:15 am

    18 years after 9/11…We have spent Trillions, are less free than we were on 9/10/2001, and are still stuck in forever-war. Islam/Sharia has been elected to our offices and is loud and proud. I would say that the terror that is Islam has won. Or has it? The Middle East is more or less under our control. We say jump, they do it. Daesh has been obliterated. Yes, there is war on Islam’s borders, as there has always been throughout history. Iran is a major sponsor of terror and is a thorn…as it has been since 1979, but their power and influence has been reduced. None of the other Middle East states regard us as the enemy anymore. They saw the destruction and don’t want to test the ‘strong horse’ Trump. None of the neighboring states of Israel want a war with them.

    Are we at detente / containment as we were with the Soviets in the 70’s? Is it even correct to apply the old bi-polar strategies and definitions to this struggle? I think it is. Islam is nothing more than a political system pretending to be a religion. Communism was a political system that strived to be a religion. Both are and were anathema to Western Civilization.

    The pinnacle of 2527 years of the development of Western Civilization is The United States of America. The other Western Democracies, as in the Cold War, are along for the ride. The pure power and might of the US is unparalleled in human history. The Roman Legions and the British Navy of old were indeed the ultimate ‘global’ powers in their times and historical spaces. America’s global reach and economic power has no equal even when adjusted for history, hence, it is the main target. Everyone wants a shot at the Champ. Rome was taken down as the world grew up around it. The British Empire was replaced by America. For the past 75 years, The US has been the de facto driver of the world. Mistakes were and will be made on the way.

    As a student of Economics and History, I look at the Chinese ‘threat’ as almost a joke. WE taught them just enough about economics for them to hang themselves. Central Banking is War by other means. Are we perfect economically? Nope. However, the Chinese are in very, very big trouble. Export led economic development has always led to ruin every time its tried because you do not have control of the markets that are exported to. A powerful middle-class who drives consumer spending is the ONLY path to a healthy and growing economy. This has to backed by manufacturing where raw materials are taken out of the ground and made into end-use products. This is where real and sustained economic growth occurs. We are back on that path. The Chinese are losing markets, running out of water, and can’t produce enough food and must import. Lower the value of your currency to prop up exports, your food bill goes up and service on your debt increases. The human body needs oxygen, water, and food at a base level. Potable water is the cornerstone of all development, calories come next.

    I suppose that I am fairly optimistic about the foreseeable future.

    AND

    THis is fun. Look, I read this whole thing and had to apply some math that I haven’t used since grad/PhD level stats…Their summary is devastating.

    This analysis has shown that the air temperature projections of advanced climate models are just linear extrapolations of fractional GHG forcing. Linear propagation of model error follows directly from GCM linear extrapolation of forcing. The ±4 Wm–2 year–1 annual average LWCF thermal flux error means that the physical theory within climate models incorrectly partitions energy among the internal sub-states of the terrestrial climate. Specifically, GCMs do not capture the physical behavior of terrestrial clouds or, more widely, of the hydrological cycle (Stevens and Bony, 2013). As noted above, a GCM simulation can be in perfect external energy balance at the TOA while still expressing an incorrect internal climate energy-state.

    The further meaning of uncertainty in projected air temperature is extensively discussed in Section 10.1 of the Supporting Information, “Why confidence intervals do not imply model oscillation.” Sections 10.2 and 10.3 of the Supporting Information provide an extended discussion of the meaning of confidence intervals, uncertainty, and propagated error.

    Although other approaches to uncertainty in projections and simulations of climate futures have been carried out, most notably perhaps using Bayesian statistics (Tebaldi et al., 2005; Buser et al., 2009; Urban and Keller, 2010; Zanchettin et al., 2017), none of them propagate calibration error through model simulation steps into the projected future climate-state. In these studies, the impact of the continued evolution of simulation error on the uncertainty within the final projected climate state remains unevaluated.

    It is now appropriate to return to Smith’s standard description of physical meaning, which is that, “even in high school physics, we learn that an answer without “error bars” is no answer at all” (Smith, 2002). LWCF calibration error is ±114 × larger than the annual average increase in GHG forcing. This fact alone makes any possible global effect of anthropogenic CO2 emissions invisible to present climate models.

    At the current level of theory an AGW signal, if any, will never emerge from climate noise no matter how long the observational record because the uncertainty width will necessarily increase much faster than any projected trend in air temperature. Any impact from GHGs will always be lost within the uncertainty interval. Even advanced climate models exhibit poor energy resolution and very large projection uncertainties.

    The unavoidable conclusion is that a temperature signal from anthropogenic CO2 emissions (if any) cannot have been, nor presently can be, evidenced in climate observables.

    Man Made global warming will not get beyond the noise of the data. devastating. This is a single stroke destruction of the data and the models. I have a MS in Econ and Applied Statistics, this is the single most devastating Summary that I have ever read. As geeky as it sounds, I had chills when I read it.

    Bayesian statistics is a theory in the field of statistics based on the Bayesian interpretation of probability where probability expresses a degree of belief in an event. The degree of belief may be based on prior knowledge about the event, such as the results of previous experiments, or on personal beliefs about the event. This differs from a number of other interpretations of probability, such as the frequentist interpretation that views probability as the limit of the relative frequency of an event after many trials.

    “The Science is Settled…”

    By citing Bayesian statistical theory the writers basically gut-punched, spat on, and then assassinated man-made global warming. Then cooked some steaks on a charcoal fire. This was on purpose and is a total dismal by KO. If this summary were applied to your MS/PhD defense you would be taken out back and shot, after a good stoning and drawn and quartering. Your advisor would be skinned alive.

    Howz that for a far ranging open? 🙂

    The Death Of Rock, And a Sunday ‘Ashes’ Open

    by coldwarrior ( 57 Comments › )
    Filed under History, Music, Open thread, Sports at September 8th, 2019 - 3:03 pm

    This article defines the death of Rock.

    Speaking of Ashes…

    Australia have retained the “Ashes”! Aussie Infidel will be rather pleased.

    History of ‘The Ashes


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