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  • 9/11 Anniversary and Open

    by coldwarrior ( 95 Comments › )
    Filed under Academia, Cold War, Economy, History, Islam, Open thread, September 11, Terrorism at September 11th, 2019 - 2:15 am

    18 years after 9/11…We have spent Trillions, are less free than we were on 9/10/2001, and are still stuck in forever-war. Islam/Sharia has been elected to our offices and is loud and proud. I would say that the terror that is Islam has won. Or has it? The Middle East is more or less under our control. We say jump, they do it. Daesh has been obliterated. Yes, there is war on Islam’s borders, as there has always been throughout history. Iran is a major sponsor of terror and is a thorn…as it has been since 1979, but their power and influence has been reduced. None of the other Middle East states regard us as the enemy anymore. They saw the destruction and don’t want to test the ‘strong horse’ Trump. None of the neighboring states of Israel want a war with them.

    Are we at detente / containment as we were with the Soviets in the 70’s? Is it even correct to apply the old bi-polar strategies and definitions to this struggle? I think it is. Islam is nothing more than a political system pretending to be a religion. Communism was a political system that strived to be a religion. Both are and were anathema to Western Civilization.

    The pinnacle of 2527 years of the development of Western Civilization is The United States of America. The other Western Democracies, as in the Cold War, are along for the ride. The pure power and might of the US is unparalleled in human history. The Roman Legions and the British Navy of old were indeed the ultimate ‘global’ powers in their times and historical spaces. America’s global reach and economic power has no equal even when adjusted for history, hence, it is the main target. Everyone wants a shot at the Champ. Rome was taken down as the world grew up around it. The British Empire was replaced by America. For the past 75 years, The US has been the de facto driver of the world. Mistakes were and will be made on the way.

    As a student of Economics and History, I look at the Chinese ‘threat’ as almost a joke. WE taught them just enough about economics for them to hang themselves. Central Banking is War by other means. Are we perfect economically? Nope. However, the Chinese are in very, very big trouble. Export led economic development has always led to ruin every time its tried because you do not have control of the markets that are exported to. A powerful middle-class who drives consumer spending is the ONLY path to a healthy and growing economy. This has to backed by manufacturing where raw materials are taken out of the ground and made into end-use products. This is where real and sustained economic growth occurs. We are back on that path. The Chinese are losing markets, running out of water, and can’t produce enough food and must import. Lower the value of your currency to prop up exports, your food bill goes up and service on your debt increases. The human body needs oxygen, water, and food at a base level. Potable water is the cornerstone of all development, calories come next.

    I suppose that I am fairly optimistic about the foreseeable future.

    AND

    THis is fun. Look, I read this whole thing and had to apply some math that I haven’t used since grad/PhD level stats…Their summary is devastating.

    This analysis has shown that the air temperature projections of advanced climate models are just linear extrapolations of fractional GHG forcing. Linear propagation of model error follows directly from GCM linear extrapolation of forcing. The ±4 Wm–2 year–1 annual average LWCF thermal flux error means that the physical theory within climate models incorrectly partitions energy among the internal sub-states of the terrestrial climate. Specifically, GCMs do not capture the physical behavior of terrestrial clouds or, more widely, of the hydrological cycle (Stevens and Bony, 2013). As noted above, a GCM simulation can be in perfect external energy balance at the TOA while still expressing an incorrect internal climate energy-state.

    The further meaning of uncertainty in projected air temperature is extensively discussed in Section 10.1 of the Supporting Information, “Why confidence intervals do not imply model oscillation.” Sections 10.2 and 10.3 of the Supporting Information provide an extended discussion of the meaning of confidence intervals, uncertainty, and propagated error.

    Although other approaches to uncertainty in projections and simulations of climate futures have been carried out, most notably perhaps using Bayesian statistics (Tebaldi et al., 2005; Buser et al., 2009; Urban and Keller, 2010; Zanchettin et al., 2017), none of them propagate calibration error through model simulation steps into the projected future climate-state. In these studies, the impact of the continued evolution of simulation error on the uncertainty within the final projected climate state remains unevaluated.

    It is now appropriate to return to Smith’s standard description of physical meaning, which is that, “even in high school physics, we learn that an answer without “error bars” is no answer at all” (Smith, 2002). LWCF calibration error is ±114 × larger than the annual average increase in GHG forcing. This fact alone makes any possible global effect of anthropogenic CO2 emissions invisible to present climate models.

    At the current level of theory an AGW signal, if any, will never emerge from climate noise no matter how long the observational record because the uncertainty width will necessarily increase much faster than any projected trend in air temperature. Any impact from GHGs will always be lost within the uncertainty interval. Even advanced climate models exhibit poor energy resolution and very large projection uncertainties.

    The unavoidable conclusion is that a temperature signal from anthropogenic CO2 emissions (if any) cannot have been, nor presently can be, evidenced in climate observables.

    Man Made global warming will not get beyond the noise of the data. devastating. This is a single stroke destruction of the data and the models. I have a MS in Econ and Applied Statistics, this is the single most devastating Summary that I have ever read. As geeky as it sounds, I had chills when I read it.

    Bayesian statistics is a theory in the field of statistics based on the Bayesian interpretation of probability where probability expresses a degree of belief in an event. The degree of belief may be based on prior knowledge about the event, such as the results of previous experiments, or on personal beliefs about the event. This differs from a number of other interpretations of probability, such as the frequentist interpretation that views probability as the limit of the relative frequency of an event after many trials.

    “The Science is Settled…”

    By citing Bayesian statistical theory the writers basically gut-punched, spat on, and then assassinated man-made global warming. Then cooked some steaks on a charcoal fire. This was on purpose and is a total dismal by KO. If this summary were applied to your MS/PhD defense you would be taken out back and shot, after a good stoning and drawn and quartering. Your advisor would be skinned alive.

    Howz that for a far ranging open? 🙂

    The Death Of Rock, And a Sunday ‘Ashes’ Open

    by coldwarrior ( 57 Comments › )
    Filed under History, Music, Open thread, Sports at September 8th, 2019 - 3:03 pm

    This article defines the death of Rock.

    Speaking of Ashes…

    Australia have retained the “Ashes”! Aussie Infidel will be rather pleased.

    History of ‘The Ashes

    NCAA College Football Week 2, 2019 OPEN and Friday OOT

    by coldwarrior ( 78 Comments › )
    Filed under College Football, Open thread at September 6th, 2019 - 7:51 pm

    OPEN

    THIS was a day off??? WTF…I work harder at work! Quite a honey-do list was handed to me yesterday. Now I can goof-off until work Monday morning. Lets start with placing a brisket on the smoker. THAT will be ready tomorrow! The girls want to sleep outside on the deck tonight AND tomorrow. I just got done tying off the tarp, OD Green, Canvas, 8×16, to the deck roof and to the outer rail so as to cover the other half of the deck. Very field expedient, if i say so myself.

    Dinner will be Hebrew National hot dogs and some wonderful Andoille sausages au grille…some fried peppers and onions to top that off.

    Of Course there will be college football! And some Caribbean Professional T20 Cricket tonight and tomorrow.

    Let’s get started with some white ball.

    Tonight (Friday)

    The Jamaica Tallawahs are at The Trinidad and Tobago (Trinbago) Knight Riders live from Queen’s Park Oval. Who will win? I don’t care. The CPL is THE Biggest Party In Sport! as they say. And it’s the truth. the stands look like a great way to spent 4-5 hours! Booze, dancing, music, great food…hey, it’s sponsored by El Dorado Rum! Going to one of these matches is high on my bucket list.

    Marshall at #24 Boise State – Fri, Sep 6, 9:00 PM ET…Boise got shown what real ball looks like last week by FSU. However, their QB is amazing. He an the Broncos will cover the 13 that Caesars’s is giving The Herd.

    Saturday:

    Ohio at Pittsburgh – Sat, Sep 7, 11:00 AM ET…The Alumnae are calling for the head coach’s head already. It’s a yearly thing with my beloved Panthers. The Online crew is giving 3.5 to OU. I’ll take PITT to cover.

    #21 Syracuse at Maryland – Sat, Sep 7, 12:00 PM ET…The Terps are getting 1.5? Something looks fishy and I’m staying away from this one. Nah. I’ll take the Orangemen to cover.

    #12 Texas A&M at #1 Clemson – Sat, Sep 7, 3:30 PM ET…here is how far apart the numbers are Friday evening: Caesars +16.5 // William Hill +19. This is highly unusual. There might be a +/- 0.5 between the houses. 2.5???? I don’t even know what to do with this. That 19 looks awfully tasty. And I’ll take the Aggies to cover. I have a soft spot for TAMU….a home game there is also on my bucket list. We’ll see if that is a soft spot in my head or not Saturday evening!

    BYU at Tennessee – Sat, Sep 7, 7:00 PM ET…The Mormons are getting 4 on the road, at fabled Rocky Top versus the Team Formerly Known as The Vols. OK, I’ll bite. The Vols cover. (I expect to lose this one).

    Coastal Carolina at Kansas – Sat, Sep 7, 7:00 PM ET…Les Miles (of LSU fame) is now a Rock Chalk Jay Hawk! Kansas WILL start winning under Les. But, he has a team of peeps that he didn’t recruit. Coastal Carolina is getting 7??? I’ll bite. Kansas covers.

    #6 LSU at #9 Texas – Sat, Sep 7, 7:30 PM ET…game of the week. All houses are agreed the Texas gets 6.5 at home. LSU will cover.

    #23 Stanford at USC – Sat, Sep 7, 10:30 PM ET…USC is getting 2.5 at Ceasar’s. I’ll take The Cardinal to cover.

    Incarnate Word is hosting Texas Southern. There is no line as betting against GOD is a bad idea.

    Last week 2/3 $1100/1000…each bet is $100 unless otherwise noted.

    A song to get us into Friday night:


    Enjoy!

    Big Blues Bender Open

    by lobo91 ( 53 Comments › )
    Filed under Music, Open thread at September 5th, 2019 - 12:43 am

    I got into town late this afternoon, got checked in to the world-famous Stratosphere Hotel and Casino, and headed downtown to see what was happening on Fremont Street. Boy, has that place changed since I was last here. It’s turning into San Francisco East.

    I’m looking forward to a shower, and a couple of days of good old-fashioned American blues.

    Anyway, I saw that the previous thread had timed out when I got back to my room, so here’s a new one to tide you over.


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