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Posts Tagged ‘GDP’

Can Accounting Changes Save America?: Reddux

by Flyovercountry ( 137 Comments › )
Filed under Economy, Progressives, unemployment at May 9th, 2014 - 7:00 am

Political Cartoons by Steve Breen

It was in May of 2013 that I first highlighted some accounting changes which had taken place at the United States Department of Commerce. Among other changes, they had begun the practice of adding intellectual property as a product to be included in calculations of or Gross Domestic Product. Laughable as this was, and even given the fact that this particular inventory item can be manipulated to be anything a President with suddenly sinking approval numbers wants or needs it to be, such accounting changes will one day be one year old. In the retail industry, that’s what we called, “around the horn.” Let’s explore that concept in a little more detail.

When you manage a store for a company, there is a weekly report of sales numbers. Those numbers are usually compared with the exact same week from the previous year. If you sales are more than last year, the people who sit in Executive Offices are usually happy. If those sales numbers are lower, they’ll be unhappy. Unhappy executives will seek to understand the source of their frowning state, and will also want to know what you, as the store manager are doing about it, (turning their frown upside down.) Some phone calls will ensue. Executive managers will call regional managers who will call district managers who will call store managers. The first question is invariably, “Why!?” Sometimes, the answer will be, a new store or shopping mall just opened up in my neighborhood. They’ll demand to know exactly how far, where, what roads must be traversed, are there tunnels, bridges, mountains, etc. The date of the opening will be written in a book somewhere, and When that date passes next year, God help you if you’re still down in sales. The boss’ answer will be, you are around the horn, and your excuse is no longer going to be accepted.

The same phenomenon also happens the other way. Somehow, the guys at the top always seem to know when competition closes, a new road opens, or some event has taken place to help you look good. Then the refrain becomes, we’ll see if your numbers are as good when we come around the horn on this thing. So, what do you think, “around the horn,” means for the Obama Administration?

The first quarter’s growth in GDP after the horn was rounded on those previously mentioned accounting changes came in at an eye popping .1%. Not only does this represent an annualized figure, but according to statements made by Fed Chief Janet Yellen today, it also includes an adjustment to core inflation, fudged specifically for the purpose of being able to claim that staggering economic expansion, rather than a contraction. We got this news last week one day prior to a bizarre claim made by the Department of Labor that their reports showed another 277,000 jobs were added to the economy by American businesses. The more astute among you might very well say, as much to yourselves as those listening in, “those two reports from the differing arms of our federal behemoth do not jibe with each other,” and you’d be correct. As it turns out, a fudge factor was used by the Department of Labor, because it was April, and apparently April is national tell-me-a-fairy-story month.

For those who don’t know, the unemployment top number is not exactly an exact science. It is figured by the Census Bureau sending out and analyzing the answers to two differing questionnaires. One is sent to about 25,000 American Households each month, and the other involves responses from about 160,000 American businesses. The Institutional Survey, sent to the latter, is run past the statisticians and accountants who then figure how many new jobs were added by businesses, and how many jobs were eliminated. So, paying attention to the usage of new jobs, and net new jobs is important as well. Then the Household Survey is run through the same process to guess how many of our Citizens were actually hired to fill those or other positions and how many lost their jobs. In April of this year, our government reported to us that American Businesses added 277,000 jobs and that 838,000 fewer Americans are working to fulfill those net jobs added. This bizarre reporting of statistics is not new, not an anomaly, but has been pretty much standard fare for close to two years now. Just to drive the point home, April’s anomaly represents a disparity of 1.1 Million people involved in a statistical impossibility, and that same statistical impossibility has been happening unbroken since July of 2012. So now my fellow inhabitants of the current worker’s paradise and formerly free nation known as the people’s republic of America, the question is, do you think that there may be some chicanery involved with how these figures are reported to us?

I am not certain which astounds me more, the fact that the current Administration must obviously believe that they can continue this lie for ever, and no one will catch wise, or if it is how completely incurious the alphabet media seems to be that they are still reporting these numbers without circus music playing in the background. O.K., forget the circus music, at least question the validity once in a while, especially when the lie is so gosh darned obvious.

Thank goodness for Fox News, who at least pressed for some sort of explanation, and didn’t just accept the baloney like the trained zombies at other news outlets. They at least got some sort of an explanation from the White House concerning our suddenly near zero GDP growth. That explanation was that it was cold during the winter months, (which apparently according to the White House has never ever happened before in U.S. history.) So, maybe the answer is that we actually need global warming to be real, and we need it to start working now, or we’ll all starve. Don’t worry my fellow future inhabitants of the reeducation camps, November of 2016 is only 30 short months away. I just hope we don’t do something stupid again, like electing Hillary Clinton to be our 45th President.

Cross Posted from Musings of a Mad Conservative.

Can An Accounting Change Save America? Have You Ever Actually Seen A Unicorn?

by Flyovercountry ( 40 Comments › )
Filed under Business, Economy, Progressives, Socialism, unemployment at August 12th, 2013 - 7:00 am

Way back in a former life, I managed stores for the F.W. Woolworth Company. As with many retail operations, managers were compensated handsomely through profit bonuses. In the case of the Woolworth Store that I managed for instance, The company wrote up a contract where by, I was paid 10% of any increase in net profit excluding my salary, beyond a figure that was $10,000 less than when I took the store over. If I kept the same profit, I made a $1000 bonus.

Sometime during July of 1994, I attended a district meeting hosted by our District Manager. During that meeting, our boss informed us of an accounting change that was being made policy by the upper management of the Woolworth Division. The change would make us more profitable, and the nuts and bolts of it were really nothing that we could control or should worry about in any way, save one. Since our stores would be made more profitable due to something that we had nothing to do with, the old contracts were being redone, and new ones to reflect increases in profitability were being sent out, in which the deal was somewhat soured. (As it happens, I was the only manager in the Chicago Region to beat my contract that year.)

The more astute of you may have looked out over our fruited plains recently and realized just now, that they are absent of any Woolworth Stores. According to the legal accountant in Milton, there is a correlation between accounting chicanery and a corporation’s over all health. Whether this is a, “chicken and egg,” argument I couldn’t say, but I have learned something valuable. While I don’t often understand the exact details of them, accounting changes are a sign. If you work for a corporation which institutes one, dust off your resume. If you live in a nation that institutes one, count your fingers, you’re about to be taken to the proverbial cleaners.

From Market Watch, a subsidiary of The Wall Street Journal:

What’s the upshot? The rate of growth hasn’t changed all that much, though there are big shifts in a few time periods. But the level of output is higher — $559.8 billion larger, with $526 billion of that amount due to definitional changes.

The above quote came from a news blurb describing the Commerce Department’s institution of an accounting change in how it measures GDP output and growth. Notice the chart at the top of the page. Magically, the GDP growth rates have remained somewhat constant through the inception of our government’s official measure of this metric, and suddenly taken off from 2007 through the present. I’m sure that this is just a conveniently happy coincidence for our current dear comrade leader, B. Hussein Obama, and not part of some more egregiously deceptive attempt to hide the pathetic real growth of our economy. Personal history however has taught me to be somewhat wary.

For the more masochistic among you, click this link to read the 27 page official government document concerning those accounting changes. It is a downloadable and printable pdf.

In case you’ve missed it, I wrote this yesterday. As you may have guessed, it received some commentary by those who read it. I have reproduced one such comment here, in its entirety.

You won’t get an argument from me about Hillary, but since you’re so fond of facts, maybe the verifiable ones should be right?

Fact: Real GDP grew 2.5% in 2010, 1.8% in 2011, 2.8% in 2012.

Fact: Government spending grew at a rate well over 5% after every recession except the 2008 one. In fact, it grew over 7.5% in 5 out of 8 of Reagan’s years.

Fact: The recession officially ended 4 years ago, not 5.

Fact: Microsoft didn’t write the ORCA software. More than $14 million went to the company of Romney’s Director of Digital. The full version of ORCA was built by IT people and volunteers, who were as competent at that as everything else they did.

Fact One:
Getting to the crux of his argument against my facts, let’s put that quote pulled from the Market Watch article in perspective. The GDP growth rate was revised up from the original figure of $33 Billion, to the more palatable $559 Billion. This accounting change improved the GDP growth rate by 1600%, give or take. So Mr. Mari, get your eggs straight in your basket before you throw them. Now, just to put the exclamation point on all of this, my retort hasn’t even taken into account the wonderful quantitative easing that has been happening non stop since 2009. Your GDP growth rates were doubtless expressed in 2013 dollars, as is government practice these days. Real GDP growth, expressed in pre-quantitative easing dollars would be a far more accurate view of the economy’s actual growth. In short, your comment was so egregiously dishonest, I felt it deserved some exposure to sunlight.

Fact Two:
I know that our government’s usual response to a recession is to increase its spending as an attempt to, “stimulate,” the economy. The fact is that our government should not answer the blind chants of, “do something,” by doing something. Just because Reagan made the deal with Tip O’Neil and agreed to spending now in exchange for spending cuts on Tuesday does not mean that the deal was a good one. If everyone else jumped off of the Brooklyn Bridge, would you follow? As for your contention that Spending has not increased dramatically, and well beyond 5% over the last five years, this is just jaw droppingly absurd. I don’t know where you’ve cherry picked your spending figures from, but this scrubbed version from the accountants of Unicorn City, the Capitol of Obama Green Fairy Land will only ever be accepted by the other moronic citizens who live there with you.

Fact Three:
As for when the recession officially ended, I have this to say, what ever dude. That is hardly important to any point that I was making, which by the way was entirely about not just accepting as Conservatives, that Hillary would be a fait accompli for the White House in 2016.

Fact Four:
Mr. Mari, this last fact of yours needs to be discussed in particular.

About your statement concerning Microsoft not selling Orca to the Romney team, no I have not seen the actual invoice. I did however get to sit through several agonizing conference calls in which Microsoft was identified by Romney’s people as the author of that program. Microsoft programmers identified themselves as representatives of Microsoft on many of those calls, fielded questions, took credit for their work, and boasted about how their spiffy new program would change election day activity for decades to come. So, my question for you, since you’ve cast some aspersions on Mitt Romney, like an actual allegation of him violating FEC rules and all, what evidence do you have to support your claim? It is one thing to get facts wrong, it is another to allege actual criminal behavior. Can you back that up? Have you forwarded you allegations and proof to the proper authorities? If Mitt Romney is guilty of a crime, he should answer for that crime, as should any other American citizen.

One of the reasons I find arguing with liberals so tiring is this. We, the good guys are concerned with trite little things like real life flesh and blood consequences to actual people. Liberals are all about the spin. How can they spin reality to place themselves in a better light. Maybe that’s how they have been so adept recently at winning elections on the national level. I still maintain however that spin will only get them so far. The real life consequences of hunger and power outages will not be received well by Americans at large, no matter how may accounting changes Barack Obama institutes.

Cross Posted from Musings of a Mad Conservative.

UPDATE:

Written by Vern Shotwell.

It’s worth noting that the title of all 8 pages of the linked slide show is:

The new GDP methodology: What you need to know
U.S. economy over $500 billion larger due to new definitions

Think about that for a moment! Nothing has changed, we just decided that knowledge has intrinsic value.
By this strange point of view, Knowledge becomes a capital investment and no longer a cost of producing goods.
But what of failures? Since investment was made, such failures are included as growth.
And what of phenomenal successes? Ideas are occasionally developed that return hundreds, thousands of times the investment! Such items as well go unadjusted: only the raw time and effort is thereby accounted for.
An example of either Socialism or Communism, is it not? Success goes unrewarded for it’s merits ….
“From each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs.” …Karl Marx

The Obama Boom: GDP revised upward to 1.7% and the media cheers!

by Phantom Ace Comments Off on The Obama Boom: GDP revised upward to 1.7% and the media cheers!
Filed under Business, Economy, Headlines at August 29th, 2012 - 9:49 am

GDP growth has been revised up to 1.7%. This is an anemic figure, yet the media is cheering this number!

The U.S. economy fared slightly better than initially thought in the second quarter, but the pace of growth remained too slow to shut the door on further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve.

Gross domestic product (learn more)expanded at a 1.7 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said in its second estimate on Wednesday as stronger export growth offset a pull-back in restocking by businesses wary of sluggish domestic demand.

That was up from last month’s 1.5 percent estimate and in line with economists’ expectations. The economy grew at a 2.0 percent pace in the January-March period.

Boom times are here again, let’s cheer!

The Obama Boom: 1st Quarter GDP for 2012 grew at 1.9%

by Phantom Ace ( 76 Comments › )
Filed under Business, Economy at May 31st, 2012 - 12:00 pm

(Hat Tip: Huckfunn)

The great Obama Boom is going through a rocky phase. After an initial reporting of GDP coming in for the 1st Quarter of 2012 at 2.2%, the media celebrated. This said it was proof of the strong recovery and was a good start to the year. That number has been reduced to 1.9%. The great economic recovery is starting the year with 1.9% growth. To make matters worse this week’s unemployment claims rose and the ADP monthly job report came in weaker than expected.

Private payroll growth accelerated only slightly last month and claims for jobless benefits rose last week, suggesting the U.S. labor market recovery was stalling after a strong performance early in the year.

Other data on Thursday showed economic growth in the first quarter was a bit softer than initially estimated, with businesses restocking shelves more slowly than previously thought and government spending declining more sharply.

[…]

Private employers created 133,000 jobs in May, payrolls processor ADP said. That was below economists’ expectations for 148,000 jobs.

[…]

While economists have largely shrugged off the recent cooling in the labor market as payback for strong gains during winter, there are signs of fundamental weakness.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 383,000, a Labor Department report showed. Claims have now risen in seven of the last eight weeks.

[…]

Separately, gross domestic product increased at a 1.9 percent annual rate in the first quarter, down from the 2.2 percent the Commerce Department had estimated last month. The economy grew at a 3.0 percent rate in the fourth quarter.

The report also showed that after-tax corporate profits dropped for the first time in three years last quarter.

A modest downward revision to consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity, and stronger import growth also accounted for the weaker first-quarter output. Economists polled by Reuters had expected growth would be revised down to a 1.9 percent pace.

Terrible economic news, but don’t worry, good times are ahead!

While the small inventory build-up held back growth in the January-March quarter, restocking of shelves, retreating gasoline prices and an improving housing market should provide a boost to output in the second quarter.

Growth in the second quarter is currently estimated at a pace of about 2.5 percent

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!  These people really have have faith in the Pharaonic Regime. Despite weeks and months of bad data, the media and their “economists” still claim good times are here or are just around the corner. They have been proclaiming this for the last 3 years yet these good times have not materialized.

The Obama Boom is a lie that refuses to die. Only in Pharaonic America is 1.9% GDP growth and 100,000 jobs created monthly is considered great economic times.