I have had several arguments in the past with friends regarding the accuracy of media polls.  The argument takes a while to verbalize, but it always ends up here, the liberal friends generally think that all polls are extremely accurate measures of public sentiment, we conservatives generally believe them to be largely nonsense.  That being said, we all usually pay attention to them.  This argument has gone on for years.  During Presidential Campaigns I will often point out that the polls don’t even agree with other, and it will be pointed out to me that for the most part, a large majority of polls will usually predict actual results quite accurately.  Being an analytic wonk, I usually like to dig a little deeper.  I like to look at a polls internals, or at least look at the work of those who have spent the time to do that for me.  Which brings us to the polls this week concerning the protests of public sector unions occurring in Madison, Wisconsin and Columbus, Ohio. 

The polls to put it bluntly, are baloney.  CBS, the NYT, and PPP have all come out with polls which state that 60% of the American Public are supportive of the Unions, and against governors Walker and Kasich.  In effect, what these polls are stating is that the elections of November 2010, which hinged on these very issues, were not what the citizens of Ohio and Wisconsin really wanted when they overwhelmingly elected not only Republican Governors, but also completely realigned the State Legislatures of both States to be entirely controlled by the GOP.  That at the very beginning of this very fight the voters of these two states demanded, the voters inexplicably changed their minds.  On the very face of it, this seems preposterous.  So, how did these pollsters come up with this, and why. 

As promised, the work of someone who looked at the internals of the polls for me.  There is also a link attached to Morrisey’s article which shows someone looking at the PPP poll in Wisconsin.  Here are some highlights from Morrisey’s article.

First, the partisan split in the sample gave a ten-point advantage to Democrats.  Their sample for this poll had a D/R/I split of 36/26/31, an absurd sample for political polling.  In December, Rasmussen’s general-population survey put Republicans ahead, 36.0% to 34.7% for Democrats.  A recent poll by Gallup shows erosion in Democratic affiliation all through 2010.  In 2008, Barack Obama won the popular vote by seven points nationwide, and the NYT/CBS poll assumes that the electorate has grown more Democratic in 2011.

Next, 20% of the poll’s respondents claim to come from union households.  However, only 11.9% of American workers belong to a union, according to a report published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics last month and noted by none other than the Times itself.  Union membership fell to a 70-year low as a percentage of the workforce, which in itself is a rather damning statement about the view of collective bargaining by the vast majority of American workers.  How exactly did the survey manage to comprise itself of almost twice as many union-household respondents for a poll on union policies as union members in the workforce?  Interesting.
Finally, 25% of respondents are either public employees or share a household with a public employee.  Federal employees comprise less than 2% of the workforce at around 2 million.  Overall, the US has 22.22 million government employees out of an employed workforce of 130.27 million, according to the Current Employment Statistics survey at the BLS.  Government employment accounts for 17% of all workers, so a sample consisting of 25% public-sector households for a survey of adults (not registered voters) seems a little off.

That sums up the how.  Let’s talk now about the why.  I have never kept it a secret that I view a vast majority of the media to be extremely biased towards the left side of any argument or debate.  My liberal friends have all called me crazy, and even insisted that if anything the media is biased towards the other side.  Usually, the last statement makes me laugh.  I realize that laughing is not an argument, but I usually can’t help it.  All I will say is that during the 2008 election, even most members of the media admitted that they were openly campaigning for President Obama and using their positions withing the reporting world to conduct that campaign.  When you get a confession, a smoking gun is not required, but here is that smoking gun anyhow.

The political left realizes, as do many conservatives that this battle going on right now will have implications for a long time. The public sector unions are the power base for the political left. These unions are the top contributor monetarily to the Democrat Party. They contribute zero to the GOP. When the public sector is paid, they receive funds directly from the taxpayers. They donate part of those payments to Democrats. When Democrats hold public office, the unions and Democrats negotiate a contract, and the bill is presented to voters. These contracts are beyond preposterous in most cases. On average, Public Sector employees earn double what Private Sector employees make for similar work performed. During the latest economic unpleasantness, Public Sector workers received an average 7% wage increase, while the private Sector received increased unemployment and increased taxation. Public Sector Employees contribute nothing towards their own retirement, and receive pensions which actually manage to pay them better wages in retirement than during their working years. They pay nothing for their own health care, and reality dictates that the Private Sector, which is shrinking as a percentage of the economy will not be able to afford this for another year or two, let alone for the long term.

For those of you who wish to know, this has nothing to do with the kids, or the middle class. This is entirely about the political power of the union chieftains and their flow of money. They add nothing to our society, and it is time to send the pied piper packing. Elections have consequences, and November of 2010 was the true iteration of Democracy, not the bussed in thugs sucking air in Madison and Columbus.

Crossposted at Musings of a Mad Conservative.

UPDATE:  To put the exclamation point on the whole thing, here’s a Quinnipiac poll which shows the issue a lot closer, with 45% backing the Republican position and 42% leaning the other way.