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Posts Tagged ‘The Obama Boom’

The Obama Boom: Factory output falls in March

by Phantom Ace ( 1 Comment › )
Filed under Business, Economy, Headlines at April 18th, 2012 - 1:15 pm

The greatest economic boom since the great flood continues at an unstopable pace. Factory output fell in March, showing that the US economy after a small uptick, is slowing back down.

(Reuters) – Output at U.S. factories slipped in March and builders started construction on fewer homes, offering cautionary signals for an economy that appeared to be gaining traction.

Manufacturing output slipped for the first time in four months, dropping 0.2 percent, the U.S. Federal Reserve said on Tuesday.

The decline dragged on overall industrial production which was unchanged and fell short of analysts’ expectations.

“It looks pretty bad on the face of it,” said Tom Porcelli, an economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York.

These facts will not matter to the media. They will continue to claim the economy is awesome! The Obama boom, can’t you just feel it!

Tags: The Obama Boom
Posted in Business, Economy, Headlines | 1 Comment »

The Obama Boom Stalls: 120,000 Jobs created in March; Unemployment falls to 8.2%

by Phantom Ace ( 149 Comments › )
Filed under Barack Obama, Economy, unemployment at April 6th, 2012 - 11:30 am

After receiving media adulation the past few months as the best job growth since the 1990’s, the Obama Boom returns to form. Job growth for March fell to 120,000 created. This is below the 150,000 needed to keep up with population growth. The unemployment rate dropped to 8.2%. This fall was due to workers leaving the labor force and not job growth. This report was below the 200,000 estimate the media was expecting.

U.S. payrolls rose far less than expected in March, keeping the door open for further monetary policy support from the Federal Reserve, even as the unemployment rate fell to a three-year low of 8.2 percent.

Employers added 120,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday, the smallest increase since October.

[….]

The weak employment growth last month likely reflected the fading boost from unseasonably warm winter weather. The payrolls count for January and February was revised to show just 4,000 more jobs created than previously reported.

The drop in the unemployment rate, to the lowest level since January 2009, reflected a drop in the labor force. The separate household survey, from which the jobless rate is derieved also showed a drop in employment.

This was a bad jobs report no matter how its spin. The Pharaoh in Chief with the assistance of his high priests (media) will claim times are good and these are good numbers. Hopefully Americans will not believe the lies. But seeing the hold the Pharaoh has in people, I will not count on it. The Obama Boom is a myth that refuses to die.

Update: Dorian Grey linked to a great article showing why the 8.2% rate is a bogus number. The real number should be 9.4% is people were not vdropped from the rolls.

Recall that back in 2009, White House economists Jared Bernstein and Christina Romer used their old-fashioned Keynesian model to predict how the $800 billion stimulus would affect employment. According to their model—as displayed in the above chart, updated—unemployment should be around 5.8% today.

But the true measure of U.S. unemployment is far worse:

1. If the size of the U.S. labor force as a share of the total population was the same as it was when Barack Obama took office—65.7% then vs. 63.8% today down from last month—the U-3 unemployment rate would be 10.9%.

2. But what if you take into the account the aging of the Baby Boomers, which means the labor force participation (LFP) rate should be trending lower. Indeed, it has been doing just that since 2000. Before the Great Recession, the Congressional Budget Office predicted what the LFP would be in 2012, assuming such demographic changes. Using that number, the real unemployment rate would be 10.5%.

3. Of course, the LFP rate usually falls during recessions. Yet even if you discount for that and the aging issue, the real unemployment rate would be 9.4%.

4. Then there’s the broader, U-6 measure of unemployment which includes the discouraged plus part-timers who wish they had full time work. That unemployment rate, perhaps the truest measure of the labor market’s health, is still a sky-high 14.5%.

5. The employment-population ratio dipped to 58.5% vs. 61% in December 2008. An historically low level of the U.S. population is actually working.

The media can spin all they want, but the unemployment situation sucks.

(Hat Tip: Doriangrey)

Tags: March Jobs Report, The Obama Boom
Posted in Barack Obama, Economy, unemployment | 149 Comments »

The Obama Boom: 227,000 created in January; Unemployment rate at 8.3%

by Phantom Ace ( 68 Comments › )
Filed under Economy, Misery Index, unemployment at March 9th, 2012 - 11:30 am

The Obama Boom continues to break all economic rules. Despite subpar growth and high oil prices, 227,000 jobs were added in the month of February. Although on the surface this is a decent number, when one reads closely the numbers are deceptive. 40,000 of those created were low paying temp jobs and 80,000 were restaurant jobs, which is not a steady income. Our economy has become a low wage jobs based economy.

The slow melt-up in employment continued during February as the economy added 227,000 new jobs while the unemployment rate held flat at 8.3 percent.

With warm weather helping to spur activity and as the European sovereign debt crisis receded into the background, the American economic engine continued its slow but steady drive toward recovery.

Economists had expected 210,000 net new jobs and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 8.3 percent.

Private payrolls in February grew by 233,000. Manufacturing added 31,000 jobs and services 203,000. Government subtracted 6,000 jobs from the total.

[…]

Professional and business services added 82,000, though more than half were temp jobs. Health care gained 61,000, while hospitality — primarily bars and restaurants — contributed 41,000 for the month, while the industry has added a total of 531,000 jobs over the past two years.

[…]

Long-term unemployment continues to pose the most vexing problem for the jobs picture. The average duration of unemployment edged lower but remains at 40 weeks. Those out of work for more than 27 weeks comprise 42.6 percent of the unemployed population.

[…]

In fact, when adding the aging population and the decline in population rate against actual jobs created, the unemployment rate likely dropped just 0.04 percentage points since last August, according to an analysis from Nomura Securities economist Aichi Amemiya. According to the government’s measure, though, the rate dropped 0.8 percentage points.

The Pharaoh-in-chief and his Theban Priest media will crow about these numbers. In normal times 200,000 jobs a month would be something to brag about. The problem is most of these jobs are low paying and not what is needed to create careers and raise living standards. The low wage jobs economy was part of our problem before the recesssion. This is a structural problem which needs to be addressed.

As fuel prices rise, these job numbers will not hold up in the coming months. February could well be the last decent numbers. Even still, low wage and temp jobs are nothing to brag about. If a Republican was President the media would crucify them over this. Since this is our Pharaoh-god-king the media will cheer and hype up the numbers. The Obama Boom propaganda continues!

Tags: February job report, The Obama Boom
Posted in Economy, Misery Index, unemployment | 68 Comments »

The Obama Boom: Albert Bozzo praises the Pharoah’s Economy as awesome!

by Phantom Ace ( 6 Comments › )
Filed under Barack Obama, Economy, Elections 2012, Headlines at March 6th, 2012 - 12:15 pm

It is becoming clear that the little economic pop that occurred at the end of 2011, is wearing off. However, the media is ignoring recent bad data and still living off that little 3 month run. Albert Bozzo praises the Obama Economy and claims it’s one of the best. He said things are great and this will enable the American Pharaoh to win re-election.

With eight months until voters hit the polls, the re-election of President Obama looks more likely than ever, thanks to the escalating recovery of the stock market and economy, say analysts, and may soon make the bad times of 2009 and 2010 the distant past for many voters.

“The president’s position has improved greatly due to the performance of the economy and the stock market,” says Bill Frenzel, a 10-term, moderate GOP congressman from Minnesota, now with the Cato Institute.

Similar circumstances helped Presidents Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush win re-election, but Obama may have an additional edge in that his Oval Office predecessors had recessions begin on their watch.

[…]

“The unemployment rate will be lower, employment will be back, manufacturing employment looks like its expanding for the first time in decades,” says Lawrence White, a former White House economist and regulator who served under Democrats and Republicans and now a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business.

Of course, many analysts are quick to warn that Obama’s momentum could be slowed or derailed by various events, such as Iran blocking the Straight of Hormuz, another eruption in the E.U. debt crisis or even $5 a gallon gasoline.

A closer look at the progression of the stock market, labor market and overall economy shows Obama will have ample positive comparisons to make without stretching the truth in the slightest.

S0 rising gas and food prices don’t matter. The fact the unemployment rate has gone down due to discouraged workers don’t matter. The fact most of the jobs created are low wage jobs don’t matter. Nope, the economy is roaring becasue the media has provlaimed it. No one must dare question the Pharaoh.

What reality is this Bozzo living in?

Tags: Albert Bozzo, The Obama Boom
Posted in Barack Obama, Economy, Elections 2012, Headlines | 6 Comments »