Dr. K. (seeing into the future) gives his analysis of what happened on November 2 and hands out awards. I did not know that Mike Castle had never lost an election in 12 previous tries in Delaware. That seat was ours for the taking.
by Charles Krauthammer
When the election is over, prizes and trophies and hosannas will be issued left and right. But why wait? As a public service, I present an infallibly prescient scorecard of best and worst of 2010.
Most suicidal candidate. Carl Paladino is running in a deep-blue state with sky-high taxes, yawning deficits and rampant corruption. The last elected Democratic governor resigned in disgrace, and his successor is so tainted that he dare not run for another term. So, what does Kamikaze Carl proceed to do? Get in an angry shouting match with a reporter. Level some odd insinuation about his opponent’s “prowess.” Figuring he hasn’t veered off-message enough, he then expounds on homosexuality — and spends three days having to explain and reaffirm, before the inevitable apology. He’s down by 19 points.
Innocent bystander award. Down-ballot New York state Republicans (see above).
Luckiest guy on the planet. Chris Coons, Delaware. He draws the short straw to run against the anointed Republican establishment candidate Mike Castle, who had never lost a statewide election in 12 tries. Good soldier gamely plays sacrificial lamb — then, bingo: Castle stunningly loses the primary. Coons is now up by 18 points.
Unluckiest guy on the planet. Beau Biden (see Delaware, above), groomed for years to inherit his father’s seat. After Castle declared, however, the young Biden decided to forgo the race, citing important unfinished business as attorney general. He must now watch Coons walk off with the family jewel.
Most important socio-demographic trend. The rise of the conservative woman. Sarah Palin’s influence is the most obvious manifestation of the trend. But the bigger story is the coming of age of a whole generation of smart, aggressive Republican women, from the staunchly conservative Nikki Haley (now leading the South Carolina governor’s race) and the stauncher-still Sharron Angle (neck-and-neck with Harry Reid in Nevada) to the more moderate California variety, where both Carly Fiorina (for Senate) and Meg Whitman (for governor) are within striking distance in a state highly blue and deeply green. And they are not only a force in themselves; they represent an immense constituency that establishment feminism forgot — or disdained.
Most misrepresented socio-demographic trend. Conventional wisdom is that the election is being driven by anger and blind anti-incumbent fervor. Nonsense. Overwhelmingly, it is Democratic incumbents, not Republicans, who are under siege. This is a national revolt against the Democratic governance of the past two years. One must understand that “anger” is the explanation du jour when Republicans win big. The last wave election (1994), for example, was dubbed the Year of the Angry White Male — despite the fact that there was not a scintilla of polling evidence supporting that characterization. Of course the electorate is angry this time around. But it is not inchoate irrational anger — a “temper tantrum,” as ABC News anchor Peter Jennings called the 1994 Republican sweep — but a highly pointed, perfectly rational anger at the ideological overreach and incompetence of the governing Democrats.
Rising star. Marco Rubio, soon-to-be senator from Florida. He has the ingredients of a young Obama — smart, inspirational, minority (Cuban American), great life story. Headed for a meteoric rise.
[….]
Read the rest: Your pre election post mortem
Ohio (a state whose politics along with the rest of the Midwest I could never figure out) seems to be turning on The One thanks to the failing economy. I was always puzzled by the Midwest’s loyalty to the current Democratic Party.
by Stephen F. Hayes
Two years ago this week, with a little more than two weeks left in the 2008 presidential contest, Barack Obama delivered a speech on the economy in Toledo, Ohio. His advisers touted the speech—on the most important issue of the race, in the state that decided the 2004 presidential contest—as the beginning of his closing argument.
One month after the collapse of Lehman Brothers froze the global economy and seized the campaign, Mr. Obama laid out his “emergency rescue plan.” “It’s a plan that begins with one word that’s on everyone’s mind, and it’s spelled J-O-B-S.”
Within a month of the inauguration, the Democratic majorities in Congress had passed Mr. Obama’s stimulus plan with very few changes. Today, unemployment is 9.6%. And the Ohio voters that preferred Mr. Obama to John McCain by a margin of 51%-47% are not happy. A recent CBS poll of Ohio voters found that 38% approve of Mr. Obama’s handling of the economy, with 55% disapproving. Thirty-two percent say Mr. Obama has made progress in improving the economy, but 61% say he has not.
In Ohio these numbers will likely translate into GOP victories in next month’s election. In this supposedly “anti-Washington” year, voters there are poised to elect two former Republican congressmen, with nearly 40 years in the nation’s capital between them, to statewide office. Former Rep. Rob Portman, who also served as U.S. Trade Representative and budget director in the Bush administration, is leading Ohio Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher by some 15 points in the race for the state’s open Senate seat. John Kasich, who served in the House leadership for many of his 18 years in Congress, has maintained a small lead over incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland. Three congressional seats currently held by Democrats are expected to flip to Republicans, and two others are toss-ups.
In many ways, the debate in Ohio echoes the national political discussion. Mr. Fisher has attempted to portray Mr. Portman as a tool of big business and a career politician with close ties to George W. Bush. (The latter charge lost steam when Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, found in August that Ohio voters would rather have George W. Bush in the White House than President Obama, by a margin of 50-42.)
[….]
The race for governor in Ohio is tighter. The White House has made Gov. Strickland’s re-election a top priority, while the Republican Governor’s Association has been running ads accusing Gov. Strickland of misusing the state’s stimulus money. Yet even if the GOP candidate doesn’t win the governor’s race, Republican candidates will do well across the state.
It’s not just Ohio. If the vote counts on Election Day look anything like the polls today, the region will be solid red on the color-coded maps in newspapers on Nov. 3.
In Iowa former Republican Gov. Terry Branstad, up by more than 15 points in most polls, seems almost certain to defeat incumbent Gov. Chet Culver. In Wisconsin, polls show GOP gubernatorial candidate Scott Walker with a lead in the high single digits over Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, and political neophyte Ron Johnson is ahead by a similar margin against three-term Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold.
Read the rest: Obamanomics paints Ohio red
Tags: Charles Krauthammer
