Anyone who thought that Obama was a shoo in for defeat in 2012 is whistling past the grave yard. The man is still the darling of the media, academia, Hollywood (the popular culture) and of the clueless college students. Also the Republican Party still appears not to have learned anything from the 2008 and 2010 elections. We waste our time getting sidetracked on social issues (which turns off urbanites, suburbanites and Independents) all the while ignoring the fact that people are afraid for their economic futures – something which makes Obama extremely vulnerable. Too many people have invested too much of themselves in Barack Obama to admit that they were dead wrong in 2008. I am not saying he cannot be beaten, but he should never have risen to the position that he currently occupies. He is a far better campaigner then he will ever be an administrator.
by Michael Barone
On the day after Boxing Day, it’s worth noting that Barack Obama is down but not out.
You could tell as much from the contrast between his petulant post-election press conference and his peppy pre-Christmas press conference. In the former, he was crabby about accepting Republicans’ demands that income tax rates on all taxpayers not be raised. In the latter, he was celebrating the lame-duck Congress’s acceptance of his stands on the New START treaty, repeal of don’t ask, don’t tell, and even the previously reviled tax deal.
Obama has obviously figured out that Americans prefer to see their president describe the glass as half full rather than half empty. That’s a good lesson for him, and for Republicans as well, especially those who believe that the Obama Democrats’ shellacking in the midterms means that Obama himself will definitely lose in 2012.
History should provide some caution for these folks. Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush saw their parties fare pretty well in their midterm elections. But they were defeated for re-election anyway.
In contrast, pundits thought that Ronald Reagan’s Republicans took a shellacking in 1982 (actually, about half their losses resulted from redistricting), and Bill Clinton’s Democrats definitely did in 1994. But both the 40th and 42nd presidents were resoundingly re-elected, carrying 49 and 31 states.
Several factors will likely work less strongly against Obama in 2012 than against the Obama Democrats in 2010. Turnout will be different, for one thing. We may see again the record turnout of blacks we saw in 2008. Young people who pretty much shunned the polls in the midterms may turn out and vote–though the 34-point margin they gave to Obama was halved to 17 points for congressional Democrats in 2010.
The balance of enthusiasm favored Republicans and conservatives in 2010, as it had favored Democrats in 2006 and 2008. It could conceivably shift and favor the Democrats once again.
Another factor is that polls show that most Americans have favorable personal feelings toward the president. Bill Clinton and George W. Bush both happened to have personal characteristics that people on the other side of the cultural divide absolutely loathed. Obama doesn’t.
His reliance on his teleprompter, his secret smoking, his irritability when not adored — these are pretty minor failings. People like his family and his obvious devotion to them. They don’t mind that he likes to get away and play golf or shoot hoops from time to time.
Then there is the powerful desire Americans have to see their presidents succeed. That worked for Bill Clinton in 1996 and George W. Bush in 2004. Polls and focus groups showed that voters in the middle of the political spectrum were ready to overlook their weaknesses and appreciated their strengths in those years. That could be the case with Obama in 2012.
[….]
American voters are not seething with envy over income inequality and are not convinced that we’ll all do better if the government takes away more of Bill Gates’ money. Obama, like the academics in whose neighborhoods he has always chosen to live, think they should be seething and that if the message is just delivered the right way they can be convinced.
That’s a big difference on some fundamental issues. Enough to make the difference in 2012? Not clear.
Read the rest: Even after shellacking, Obama looks OK in 2012
Tags: Bill Clinton, Michael Barone
