You have read that headline correct. Some Democratic strategists admit that they would rather face Romney than Gingrich in a general election. This flies in the face of conventional political wisdom. For some reason, the elites think Romney has general election appeal. These Democrats have a different take. They say Newt’s appeal to the Conservative base will ensure a higher base turnout than Romney would. They also make another admission. Newt appeals to Hispanics something I can confirm from speaking with many people I know. By rejecting nativism, Newt will appeal to Hispanics voters. This is the Achilles heel of the Democratic Party.
But even as Gingrich’s sudden rise has filled many Obama supporters with cheer and some Republicans with dread, some Democratic strategists worry that the combative Gingrich presents some challenges for the Obama campaign that would not exist if Romney were the GOP candidate.
Where Romney, the former business executive and Massachusetts governor, poses a threat in his ability to win independents and conservative Democrats attracted to his image as an economic Mr. Fix-It, Gingrich could pursue a strategy that combines energizing the conservative base and chipping away Democratic support among Hispanics — an electoral formula that helped George W. Bush win in 2004.
Some Democrats believe that Gingrich, a hero of the conservative movement, would excite the party base more than a former liberal-state governor with a history of centrist views. And voters yearning for authenticity may be more open to the voluble and rumpled former House speaker, who frequently discusses his past mistakes and his recent conversion to Catholicism, than to a former equity-fund executive with perfect salt-and-pepper hair.
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Perhaps most significantly, Gingrich has an extensive Hispanic outreach organization, which he has been building for years. Unlike anything in the Romney playbook, that network could give Gingrich a head start slicing into Obama’s base in key states in the Mountain West, where Hispanics are a fast-growing swing voting bloc. Polls show Hispanic voters, two-thirds of whom backed Obama in 2008, still favor the president — but GOP strategists believe that winning 40 percent of that vote could disrupt Obama’s electoral college strategy by putting Colorado, Arizona and Nevada in the Republican column.
Gingrich is distributing a weekly Spanish-language newsletter to Hispanic voters (the subject line is “Newt con nosotros,” or “Newt with us”), holding a monthly call with community leaders, even studying Spanish and using it in appearances on Univision, the Spanish-language network.
As Romney has run hard to the right on immigration, running the risk of alienating Hispanic voters, Gingrich has pursued a more centrist course. He has expressed support for legalizing some immigrants with deep ties to the United States, a position that Romney has derided as “amnesty.”
One of Gingrich’s top advisers, Lionel Sosa, was the architect of the strategy that helped Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush each win about 40 percent of the Hispanic vote. As a result, some Democrats worry, Gingrich could attract Hispanic swing voters disappointed in Obama’s immigration or economic policies.
Read the rest: Some Democratic strategists worry about Gingrich’s potential appeal
The 40% number is key. If the Republicans get above that The false messiah is done. Anything below that and Obama will skate to re-election. Some Republicans don’t give a crap about the Hispanic vote due to their own personal prejudice, but reality is a bitch. Mitt Romney thought he could tap into that hatred and win the nomination. He bought into the Conservatives are bigots theme of the Left. The truth is the vast majority of Conservatives are not Nativists. Their gripe with illegal immigration is over law breaking. Newt’s take on this is based on legality and he throws the emotions over the issue out the window. This, in effect, takes a club the Democrats have been whacking Republicans over the head with over the last 6 years out the window. Holding the base and winning over Hispanics means that the GOP will hold the House, win the Senate and keep Obama under 50% of the vote. This will deprive him of a mandate.
Newt Gingrich is not perfect and has deviated from Conservative positions. One thing to remember, when Newt was Speaker it was the most Economically and Fiscally Conservative congress since the 1920’s. Compare that to Romney’s time as Governor as Massachusetts. He governed to the Left of Michael Dukakis. Newt Gingrich has a Center-Right/Centrist-Conservative Record. Mitt Romney has a Progressive record.
Personally I think Obama will win re-election. However, I want him damaged to the point that he will not be able to govern. Newt is a Kamikaze and will take Obama down with him. Romney will be a straw-man for Obama and will damage the Conservative image. I want to lose fighting.
Tags: Conservative Base, Democratic Strategists, Hispanic Vote, Newt Gingrich, Washinton Post
