2.0: The Blogmocracy

NeverTrumper Open #1

by coldwarrior ( 52 Comments › )
Filed under Economy, Open thread at December 8th, 2017 - 5:49 pm

I was told on THIS very blog that if Trump were elected the economy would collapse because he did not follow the ‘Pure Way Of The Light’ as foretold by the CONservatives (r) ™. He did not follow the Purity of The Way of The Light’ on Globalism and the sham that is “Free Trade’. Some of us knew that the economic and trade policies inflicted on America were designed to destroy the Middle Class and make political and economic beggars out of the hoi poli on Left AND the Right, make EVERYONE dependent on DC and ensure power to the self-appointed elitists/socialists on both sides of the aisle. This decapitation of the economy was Socialism, pure and simple…Socialism on a Global scale and many morons on the right fell for it so that they could remain ideologically ‘pure’ to what they thought Smith and Friedman were saying. Willful ignorance or purposeful misrepresentation, you decide.

Well, the rest of the country decided to say, “here, hold my beer and watch this”. They gave the middle finger to our self-appointed, ideologically pure elitists, and elected Trump. Much to the chagrin and name calling on both the Left and especially the ‘so called’ Right.

Well, LO and BEHOLD! One year in and we are well over 3+% growth and now this:

JOBS TRUMP EXPECTATIONS.... +228,000 NOVEMBER... 2.2 Million New Jobs Since Election... Record low unemployment rate for manufacturing... Hispanic unemployment rate drops to 4.7% - LOWEST in history of USA... MORE...

Believe me, NeverTrumpers, the accounting for your errors has not even begun.

And just to spike the football a bit:

BAGHDAD – Hundreds of ISIS fighters had just been chased out of a northern Syrian city and were fleeing through the desert in long convoys, presenting an easy target to U.S. A-10 “warthogs.”

But the orders to bomb the black-clad jihadists never came, and the terrorists melted into their caliphate — living to fight another day. The events came in August 2016, even as then-Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump was vowing on the campaign trail to let generals in his administration crush the organization that, under President Obama, had grown from the “jayvee team” to the world’s most feared terrorist organization.

52 Comments »

Awwwwww, Poor Snowflakes.

by coldwarrior ( 179 Comments › )
Filed under Open thread at December 6th, 2017 - 9:34 am

These are Snowflakes born bereft of a sense of irony:

Don’t call us snowflakes – it damages our mental health, say young people

Being called a “snowflake” is damaging to mental health, young people say. Figures show that the majority of young people think the term is unfair – and even more think it could have a negative effect of its own.

The “snowflake generation” is a disparaging term now commonly used to refer to young people, who are perceived to be over-sensitive and intolerant of disagreement.

But research by insurance firm Aviva found that 72 per cent of 16-24 year-olds think the term is unfairly applied, while 74 per cent think it could have a negative effect on young people’s mental health.

The figures also show that young people are more likely to have experienced stress, anxiety and depression in the last year.

Perhaps someone could start a Gofundme account to help cure this disease, Snowflakeitis. Please help now.

179 Comments »

Bayes Makes A Return To Statistics.

by coldwarrior ( 79 Comments › )
Filed under Academia, Open thread at December 4th, 2017 - 7:43 pm

It’s also an open thread (and a SLOW night in the ER)

There has been a debate in the world of Statistics on what to do now that there are such large N studies when the math is set up for much much smaller N’s.

Please read the details here

The most intriguing fix has been here with us for 350 years. The Reverend Thomas Bayes put forth this:

$P(A\mid B)={\frac {P(B\mid A)\,P(A)}{P(B)}},$

$P(A\mid B)$ is a conditional probability: the likelihood of event $A$ occurring given that $B$ is true.

$P(B\mid A)$ is also a conditional probability: the likelihood of event $B$ occurring given that $A$ is true.

$P(A)$ and $P(B)$ are the probabilities of observing $A$ and $B$ independently of each other; this is known as the marginal probability.

This is the simplest example:

Drug testing[edit]

Tree diagram illustrating drug testing example. U, Ū, “+” and “−” are the events representing user, non-user, positive result and negative result. Percentages in parentheses are calculated.

Suppose that a test for using a particular drug is 99% sensitive and 99% specific. That is, the test will produce 99% true positive results for drug users and 99% true negative results for non-drug users. Suppose that 0.5% of people are users of the drug. What is the probability that a randomly selected individual with a positive test is a user?

$33.2%$

Even if an individual tests positive, it is more likely that they do not use the drug than that they do. Why? Even though the test appears to be highly accurate, the number of non-users is large compared to the number of users. The number of false positives outweighs the number of true positives.

To use concrete numbers, if 1000 individuals are tested, there are expected to be 995 non-users and 5 users. From the 995 non-users, 0.01 × 995 ≃ 10 false positives are expected. From the 5 users, 0.99 × 5 ≈ 5 true positives are expected. Out of 15 positive results, only 5, about 33%, are genuine.

This illustrates the importance of base rates. Daniel Kahneman has argued that the formation of policy can be egregiously misguided if base rates are neglected when using statistics as a basis for guiding public policy.^[3]

The importance of specificity in this example can be seen by calculating that even if sensitivity is raised to 100% and specificity remains at 99% then the probability of the person being a drug user only rises from 33.2% to 33.4%, but if the sensitivity is held at 99% and the specificity is increased to 99.5% then the probability of the person being a drug user rises to about 49.9%.

As you can see, without Bayes, and Bayesian probability interpretation, we lose how a subjective degree of belief should rationally change to account for availability of related evidence. Bayesian inference is needed for these much larger N studies and for ever more complicated statistical modeling especially if policy or important outcomes are determined by these date sets.

79 Comments »

Sunday Sports Spectacular and Sunday Open Thread!

by Crackerbox Palace ( 116 Comments › )
Filed under Uncategorized at December 3rd, 2017 - 12:00 pm

My weekly thread has “evolved” – No more pigskin reference in the title. Because NFL is done.

The news coming out of the NFL this week has me convinced that somewhere in a safe in Roger Goodell’s office, he has naked pictures of a majority of the NFL owners. How in Hades do you renew the contract, with bonuses and perks, of the man singularly HATED by the fans and who has presided over the destruction of the very league he governs? Word is, of course, that Goodell will do whatever the owners want – unlike Rozelle and Tagliabue – so they’re happy to keep him around. I can’t wait for the day when they ask him to bark like a dog at a press conference.

If that’s not bad enough, apparently the NFL is going to pay “shakedown money” to those SJW players taking a knee – to the tune of $100,000,000 over several years. SOME of it is going to the United Negro College Fund, but the majority is going to groups like Black Lives Matter, not the “official” BLM mind you – but their more mainstream named subgroups. How much, may I ask, has the NFL given to organizations supporting the families of the police officers that have been murdered by Krapperdick’s new best friends? So for this they will no longer disrespect the anthem? The fans aren’t dumb, NFL, and this is the ultimate insult to their intelligence. Oh, and good luck getting public funding for future stadiums.

Speaking of Krapperdick (who STILL hasn’t gotten a gig in the NFL despite his preening attorney’s claim a month ago that he would be “hired within the next 10 days”), Rishard (not a misspelling) Matthews is taking advantage of today’s “wear whatever cleats you want” celebration to wear cleats in support of the Krapper. Fine, it’s his right. But he couldn’t leave it at that. He said “He has paid the ultimate sacrifice in order to bring true everyday issues to light.” What the EFF? Are you kidding me? He’s paid NO price, you effing dickhead. He walked away from a $15,000,000 contract because he didn’t want to sit on a bench and he was stupid enough to think another team would snap him up. I would also point out – again – that as bad as the 49ers are right now, NO ONE is asking him to come back.

And as far as “ultimate sacrifice” you jerk, may I recommend traveling east. To Arlington National Cemetery. THAT is the Ultimate Sacrifice for a cause.

Playing on turf:

Vikings @Falcons
Lions @ Ravens
Patriots @ Bills
Bay Area Asswipes @ Bears
Buccaneers @ Packers
Colts @ Jaguars
Broncos @ Dolphins
Chiefs @ Jets
Texans @ Titans (where I hope somone “stomps” his special cleats)
Browns @ Chargers
Panthers @ Saints
Rams @ Cardinals
Giants @ Raiders
Eagles @ Seattle

Monday’s game
Steelers @ Bengals

Playing on ice:

Kings @ Blackhawks
Senators @ Jets
Coyotes @ Golden Knights (aka Arizona @ Vegas…..not natural)
Stars @ Avalanche

Playing on links:

Depending how you feel about it, Tiger Woods returned to the PGA tour this week for the Hero World Challenge and is currently tied for 10th, which means he most certainly made the cut for the final round today. I’ve always liked watching Tiger play. It’s his horndog antics off the course that turned me off. Of course, as we learned this week, Matt Lauer makes him look like a rank amateur in that department.

Shaddup, NBA.

And as always, it’s your Sunday open thread. Still mourning Auburn’s loss myself. Predictable it was, but still is an ‘ouch’.

116 Comments »