This is NOT an endorsement. It’s an analysis.

There is no doubt that Newt Gingrich is now rising in the polls. This has taken many, including Newt Gingrich himself, by surprise. In all honesty, he was probably running for President to increase his speaker fees. He never thought he had a shot at the nomination. That has now changed. What is driving this increasing support for Gingrich? I have a few theories on what’s going on here.

The 1990’s was America’s last decade of peace and prosperity. From 1992-2000, Americans enjoyed a great economic boom that benefited every class. Incomes went up, there was social mobility and people enjoyed life. Newt Gingrich is associated with this era. Although he has the negative image of the government shutdown, it is overshadowed by the good times enjoyed by Americans. The Gingrich Congress (95-98) oversaw the creation of 10 Million jobs, welfare reform, capital gains tax cuts and deregulation of telecommunications. It was the first real Economically and Fiscally Conservative Congress since the 1920’s. Compare Newt’s record with that of corrupt crook and Progressive Tom Delay and his puppet Dennis Hastert which oversaw a massive increase in the size of government. Then after that, we had the Neo-Marxist Congress of Nancy Pelosi. The 95-98 time period was light years ahead of what followed. Americans felt good in that time period. This has lead to nostalgic feelings that are translating into support for Newt Gingrich.

Another factor behind Newt’s rise is his debate performances. Debates do not win an election. If they did Kerry would have won in 2004. But Conservatives are tired of inarticulate candidates who can’t effectively debate. They want someone who can wipe the floor with Obama and espouse Conservatism doing it. So far, Newt Gingrich has been able to do this at the GOP debates. He is a real intellect who has a grasp on the issues and actually offers solutions.

The 3rd and biggest reason for Newt’s rise is that Conservatives don’t want Mitt Romney. The GOP Establishment has thrown their lot in with Mitt Romney. They want a Progressive who will manage Big Government better than Obama not reform the government and make it efficient and less intrusive. Newt, whatever his flaws, has a Economic/Fiscally Conservative record as Speaker. Romney governed to the Left of Michael Dukakis as Governor of Massachusetts. In fact, a Mitt Romney’s Presidency would be way to the left of Bill Clinton’s! Make no mistake, Romney is a Center-Left Progressive. Newt, despite his occasional dabbling with Liberals, is Center-Right, especially on issues that matter to Conservatives.

Now if Romney is the nominee I will get very drunk and reluctantly vote for him. Then I will go to confession the next day! But after the electio, I will go after him the same way I did Bush and Obama. Next week I will have a post explaining why if, God forbid, Romney is the GOP nominee, Conservatives should reluctantly vote for him against the Regime of the False Messiah. No, I’m not selling out, just thinking strategically and I will share my strategy in a post next week.

Getting back to Newt, he has flaws and Conservatives should think long and hard before choosing him as the GOP nominee. By the same token, Obama and the Progressives know that Newt is intellectually and rhetorically their superior. This terrain they are not used to. Let’s be honest, the last 4 republican Presidential candidates were not great thinkers or speakers. The Left will have to deal with someone who can go toe to toe with them on facts and demolish their arguments.

This is not an endorsement of Newt, I linked to his flaws. But I have to be intellectually honest here. His rise is not a fluke, but a convergence of events and feelings. Newt Gingrich is a GOP Hail Mary Pass. He can either win it big or crash and burn. Only time will tell what the result ill be.

Let’s have a civil discussion about the resurrection of Newt Gingrich. No one is wrong here, just different views.