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Posts Tagged ‘quantitative easing’

Quantitative Easing, The Hidden Tax.

by Flyovercountry ( 143 Comments › )
Filed under Barack Obama, Economy, Politics at January 19th, 2012 - 12:00 pm

Think back to the ancient date of 2008, if you will. Candidate Barack Obama, during the general election pledged that 95% of all Americans would see a decrease in their total tax burden. He went on to list the complete guide to all of the taxes he would not raise, and included almost everything. Putting aside for the moment that the Health Care Law known as Obamacare represents 13 new taxes and is indeed the single largest tax increase on any population during the entirety of human history, we can give President Obama a pass on that one entirely, and he still flunks the keeping of his promise test, at least on this point.

You will notice the word almost in the paragraph above. The one tax not listed is something that not everyone recognizes as a tax, but it is a tax none the less. It is more egregious in nature, since it is hidden from you, and you sometimes do not realize that you have paid it. You will notice its effects certainly, but you will doubtless blame something else, and most probably someone else. The tax Barack Obama has raised is the purposeful devaluation of our currency. You pay it every time you spend your hard earned money. It shows up in the form of increased prices for commodities, like gasoline, orange juice, milk or eggs, and in the prices of clothing, toilet paper, or even in your cable bill.

With normal inflation, the $100 you spend on groceries will only purchase $97 worth of stuff next year. The cost of inflation is the $3 worth of purchasing power your money loses, compounded on an annual basis. Earlier this week, I read that the Administration and the Fed are teaming up for another round of something called quantitative easing. QE3 is the benign sounding moniker of this tactic utilized by tinpot dictators hailing from banana republics stretching back for centuries. It is a tax, and it is going to be felt far more by America’s Poor than by the well to do. That makes it a regressive tax, and all the worse, since the people who are paying the tab, while they will most definitely feel it, will not recognize its root. It will also not be felt solely in the prices that you pay for goods and services, but also in your retirement savings.

If you have $250,000 in your 401k, you will feel great next year when you wake one morning and see the balance sitting at $350,000. When you go to spend it however, if it only purchases what $100,000 bought last year. Will you still feel like you are ahead? You will have paid a tax on your purchasing power equal to $150,000, with out ever having written a check to Uncle Sam. Following is a short video, explaining in pictures, how quantitative easing works.

There were a couple of mistakes in the economics of our young movie producers to be sure. Taking us off of the Gold standard was never the root cause of inflation. Inflation was present during the days of the gold standard, and in fact even felt during the medieval period in Europe. Gold was in fact such an impractical currency standard, that even when we employed it, paper currency was substituted in the form of Gold Certificates. Putting all of that aside for the time being, and indeed until sufficient time on just the Gold Standard alone can be spent, what caused the inflation of the 70’s was a three fold problem, all of them being the monetary policies of three different Presidents. Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter all of them partook of the quantitative easing myth. Johnson and Nixon utilized the program to pay for things they wished to spend money on, and they wanted to hide that cost from the American People. Jimmy Carter utilized that program because of a disastrously wrong notion that there was a trade off between unemployment and inflation.

One of the side effects of course for quantitative easing is the artificially inflated price of the assets that the Fed purchases. Any asset purchased is going to be priced on a bubble. When the Fed decides to sell, in order to cool inflation, those bubbles will burst, and we all know what happens when bubbles burst. Since most of the government’s malfeasance is in purchasing the very bonds that they are issuing, and paying less interest for them that what the market says they are worth, that bubble will be the worst pop, when it bursts.

I guess the most perplexing thing for me is this, Quantitative easing has not ever worked to solve the problems it was intended to solve. Never in history, has any leader looked back upon the results of this fiscal policy and said to themselves, gee, I am glad that I did that. What it has always done though is fool politicians into thinking, hey it’s O.K. to spend irresponsibly. It has also caused significant problems, like societal collapse, revolution, poverty, etc. The only reason why those things will take a much longer time to happen here is that we have built in this country considerable wealth as a base to pay for this stupidity. The problem of course is that even the wealth of the United States is not infinite.

Cross Posted at Musings of a Mad Conservative.

Food Inflation as a Trigger for Revolution

by coldwarrior ( 118 Comments › )
Filed under Economy, Middle East at January 31st, 2011 - 6:30 pm

As we have discussed on The Blogmocracy, one of the major reasons for these ‘revolutions’ in the Middle East is the spike in food prices, I would like to expand on this here and do a post mortem on this trigger of the revolutions. Food inflation and corruption were the main triggers in Tunisia, then the revolution spread. The area already had decades of most of the long term prerequisite foundations for revolution: zero development, high birth rates without job growth for new workers, high unemployment especially among young males in the urban space, a radicalizing force in this case called islam, and abusive regimes.

A successful revolution rarely comes from the countryside. There is a reason for this. A subsistence farmer has to spend many hours a day scraping together enough calories to feed him and his family. That is tiring work that will beat the revolutionary zeal right out of you, its too hard to ‘take to the barricades’ when you have spent all day stooping in the fields to gather the evening meal .  The urban unemployed, on the other hand, have plenty of time on their hands and the calories usually comes from money handouts form the government or whatever they can earn doing informal day work or from criminal activities. Its easy to be an urban revolutionary when you can go to the cafe for some tea and listen to fellow revolutionaries regurgitate the tripe of the day.

The Middle East, as stated above, already had the triggers in place for revolution in the streets, the food price trigger was the one that got pulled.  But what caused the trigger? It certainly wasn’t supply and demand, there is plenty of food to go around. I would argue that a good portion of the pull was a result of the Quantitative Easing and printing of Dollars by the United States and the resulting actions that occurred in the markets afterward. The commodity markets got flooded with new dollars that should have been lended out to individuals and businesses. But because the US economy is so fouled up, there is no lending because there is no way banks can predict the rules that the economy will be operating in.

When the US prints all of this money, it goes out into circulation in the international markets. This can have disruptive consequences like commodity inflation OR the perception of commodity inflation. In this case, the perception of coming inflation causes futures speculation upward in the markets.  This drives prices for food upward (regardless of supply or demand). It is kind of like what mass hoarding would do. In fact, several countries that are ripe for revolution did just that and purchased tons and tons of grains in a rush and paid higher than normal prices as a ‘hoarding fee’ driving prices even higher. Algeria purchased 800,000 tons of wheat last week to secure enough food to prevent riots.  Indonesia has ordered 820,000 tonnes of rice so as to plug in a price to avoid the riots they had over food in 2008. Other vulnerable countries are in line to secure grains even at these inflated prices to avoid what is happening in the Middle East. If you live in a non-vulnerable country, the price of your loaf of bread went up and you shrugged and complained a little and then you got distracted by that phone call and forgot about the bread price. If you live in a vulnerable country, you riot over the price increase of the staples of your diet (and the corruption and lack of jobs, et cetera)

While food inflation is not the main cause it is a trigger that got pulled. We flooded the market with dollars to stimulate our economy. Lending that was supposed to happen did not. the money flowed into commodities. International commodity contract are paid in dollars, this causes inflation and more dollars in the commodities market starts a vicious cycles of speculation raising the prices beyond what normal inflation would have done on its own.  By monetarizing  our debt, and  because contracts are paid in US dollars, we exported some of our debt through the international markets into the pockets of already angry would be revolutionaries. Whether they like it or not, those street rioters helped the US debt load. I just wonder if this was a feature or just an effect of Quantitative Easing.