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Posts Tagged ‘rasmussen’

At this rate, the Dems are in for a mauling in 2010

by tqcincinnatus ( 73 Comments › )
Filed under Democratic Party, Politics, Polls at August 26th, 2009 - 3:25 pm

More bad news for the Democrats from Rasmussen today – The Republicans continue to maintain a sizeable lead in generic congressional balloting, 43%-38%,

This summer brought a significant shift in voter preferences in the Generic Congressional Ballot. As Republican Congressional candidates once again lead Democrats by a 43% to 38% margin this week, this is now the ninth straight ballot the GOP has held a modest advantage.

 Over the past nine weeks, Republicans have held a two-to-five point advantage over Democrats every week. It is important to note, however, that the recent shift is not only because Republicans have been gaining support, but that Democrats have slipped in support. While support for Republican candidates ranged from 41% to 43%, support for Democrats ranged from 37% to 39%.

 Looking back one year ago, support was strikingly different for the parties. Throughout the summer of 2008, support for Democratic congressional candidates ranged from 45% to 48%. Republican support ranged from 34% to 37%.

 Democrats held a six- or seven-point lead on the ballot for the first few weeks of 2009. That began to slip in early February, and from mid-April through June the two parties were roughly even.

 Prior to the week of March 15, however, Democratic candidates held the advantage in on the Generic Ballot for several years.

My my, what could have happened this year to sink the Democrats?  Was it the quadrupling of the budget deficit through unnecessary and counterproductive spending?  Was it the absolute waste of $787 billion on a “stimulus” package that did nothing but line the pockets of Democrat cronies?  Was it the absolute negligence of the Democrats in forcing through unread bills that large majorities of the people didn’t want?  Is it the current attempt to nationalise and destroy the health care system in America, so that we’ll all end up having to wait two years for that treatment for our liver cancer?  Or is it the visible arrogance and contempt for their own constituents who are making their voices heard at the town halls?

Or is it all of the above?

The Democrats should keep in mind that trying to Gomer Pyle our health care system was what killed them back in 1994.  And the generic numbers Rasmussen is reporting look strangely like the numbers going into 1994’s midterm elections.    Just sayin’. 

A couple of other tangential observations I would make about the recent polling data:

1) Turning the recent death of Ted Kennedy into another Wellstonepalooza is going to be about as well received by the general public as was the first Wellstonepalooza – which is to say, not very well at all.  If the Dems succumb to the obvious temptation to cynically exploit Kennedy’s death as an excuse to try to ride it for political advantage (as they already show signs of planning), it WILL backfire on them.  The Democrat’s shenanigans at Wellstone’s funeral showed them to be cynical, manipulative, and shallow.  Expect that image to be reinforced if they turn Kennedy’s funeral into a three-ring circus about health care.

2) For all the talk of how much it is supposedly “hurting” Republicans, the whole “birther” thing seems to have had about zero negative effect on their polling.  I’m not really into the birther thing myself, but it’s been hysterical seeing the marching morons come out of the woodwork with their dire predictions that asking about Obama’s birth certificate would somehow result in electoral destruction for the Republicans.  For, you know, showing a concern about the Constitution and stuff.

Obama’s Approval Rating Reaches New Low

by tqcincinnatus ( 26 Comments › )
Filed under Barack Obama, Economy, Polls at August 13th, 2009 - 9:04 pm

It’s a shame that it’s not September 2012 already.  Because then, President Obama, who we can now call “Mr. 47%” would probably get to join all of the people that his policies have put into the unemployment line.

Overall, 47% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President’s performance. That’s the lowest level of total approval yet recorded. The President’s ratings first fell below 50% just a few weeks ago on July 25. Fifty-two percent (52%) now disapprove.

We get something of a hint as to why this is,

Nationally, support for the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats has fallen to a new low. Just 42% favor the plan while 53% are opposed. Other data shows that 51% fear the federal government more than private insurance companies. Forty-one percent (41%) fear the insurance companies more. Overall, 32% favor a single-payer health care system for the U.S. while 57% are opposed.

I guess the President’s strategy of telling people to shut up because “he won” and “he’s President”, suggesting that legitimately concerned citizens at town hall meetings are really just kook right wing fringe extremists to whom we don’t need to listen, and trying to sneak 1000+ page bills through Congress before anyone can find out what they contain isn’t working.  For a change of pace, maybe Obama might try a little honesty, transparency, and responsiveness to the will of the people?

Nah, that’s just crazy talk.

More bad news for Obama, the Democrats, AND all of us Americans who will have to continue to suffer because of the obtuse policies of these buffoons – Last week’s new jobless claims rate was, ah, “revised upward” to 558,000 claims.   But but but, I thought that unemployment went down 0.1% last month and that prosperity was just around the corner? 

Reality check – the reason the unemployment rate went down 0.1% last month was not because new jobs were being created.  It was due to the vagarities of the way the “unemployment rate” is calculated, coupled with the fact that many workers are becoming classified as “discouraged workers” and being factored out of the labour force entirely.   What’s worse, when you calculate the U6 unemployment rate – which is basically the entirety of people completely out of work plus those who are want to work full-time hours but are only able to obtain part time work (which is also a factor in employment slowdown), it’s at 16.3%.  Folks, that’s in the range that was consistently seen throughout the Great Depression, when we had another socialist pushing through grandiose deficit-spending schemes and make-work programs which utterly failed to do anything beneficial. 


Obama Continues to Drop in the Polls

by tqcincinnatus ( 7 Comments › )
Filed under Barack Obama, Polls at June 21st, 2009 - 8:01 pm

Interesting news….Obama has dropped into negative territory for the first time in Rasmussen’s Strongly Support – Strongly Oppose daily tracking poll

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 32% of the nation’s voters now Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-four percent (34%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -2. That’s the President’s lowest rating to date and the first time the Presidential Approval Index has fallen below zero for Obama (see trends).

Sixty percent (60%) of Democrats Strongly Approve of the President’s performance but only 8% of Republicans share that view. Sixty-one percent (61%) of Republicans Strongly Disapprove.

Check out our weekly review of key polls to see “What They Told Us.

The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates also available on Twitter.

Overall, 53% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President’s performance so far. Forty-six percent (46%) disapprove. For more Presidential barometers, see Obama By the Numbers and recent demographic highlights.

Obama is rapidly approaching major political vulnerability territory.  For the first time, Rasmussen’s measure of political polarity has gone south on Obama.  More people in this country now strongly dislike him than strongly like him.  Based on the previous trending, it looks like this is because his support is beginning to cool off – strongly disapprove numbers are steady, but strongly approve numbers seem to be dropping slowly but surely.  And his total overall approval in this poll, which is also dropping (and Rasmussen is one of the most accurate there is), is 53%?  If I were a Democrat, the dogs would be smelling the stink of fear in my cold, cold sweat right about now. 

Despite all of the hooplah about his “high approval ratings”, he is actually well below where most recent Presidents have been at five months into their first terms.  Typically, if a President is this low after a mere five months in office, you can more accurately describe his “first term” as his “only term.”