More bad news for the Democrats from Rasmussen today – The Republicans continue to maintain a sizeable lead in generic congressional balloting, 43%-38%,
This summer brought a significant shift in voter preferences in the Generic Congressional Ballot. As Republican Congressional candidates once again lead Democrats by a 43% to 38% margin this week, this is now the ninth straight ballot the GOP has held a modest advantage.
Over the past nine weeks, Republicans have held a two-to-five point advantage over Democrats every week. It is important to note, however, that the recent shift is not only because Republicans have been gaining support, but that Democrats have slipped in support. While support for Republican candidates ranged from 41% to 43%, support for Democrats ranged from 37% to 39%.
Looking back one year ago, support was strikingly different for the parties. Throughout the summer of 2008, support for Democratic congressional candidates ranged from 45% to 48%. Republican support ranged from 34% to 37%.
Democrats held a six- or seven-point lead on the ballot for the first few weeks of 2009. That began to slip in early February, and from mid-April through June the two parties were roughly even.
Prior to the week of March 15, however, Democratic candidates held the advantage in on the Generic Ballot for several years.
My my, what could have happened this year to sink the Democrats? Was it the quadrupling of the budget deficit through unnecessary and counterproductive spending? Was it the absolute waste of $787 billion on a “stimulus” package that did nothing but line the pockets of Democrat cronies? Was it the absolute negligence of the Democrats in forcing through unread bills that large majorities of the people didn’t want? Is it the current attempt to nationalise and destroy the health care system in America, so that we’ll all end up having to wait two years for that treatment for our liver cancer? Or is it the visible arrogance and contempt for their own constituents who are making their voices heard at the town halls?
Or is it all of the above?
The Democrats should keep in mind that trying to Gomer Pyle our health care system was what killed them back in 1994. And the generic numbers Rasmussen is reporting look strangely like the numbers going into 1994’s midterm elections. Just sayin’.
A couple of other tangential observations I would make about the recent polling data:
1) Turning the recent death of Ted Kennedy into another Wellstonepalooza is going to be about as well received by the general public as was the first Wellstonepalooza – which is to say, not very well at all. If the Dems succumb to the obvious temptation to cynically exploit Kennedy’s death as an excuse to try to ride it for political advantage (as they already show signs of planning), it WILL backfire on them. The Democrat’s shenanigans at Wellstone’s funeral showed them to be cynical, manipulative, and shallow. Expect that image to be reinforced if they turn Kennedy’s funeral into a three-ring circus about health care.
2) For all the talk of how much it is supposedly “hurting” Republicans, the whole “birther” thing seems to have had about zero negative effect on their polling. I’m not really into the birther thing myself, but it’s been hysterical seeing the marching morons come out of the woodwork with their dire predictions that asking about Obama’s birth certificate would somehow result in electoral destruction for the Republicans. For, you know, showing a concern about the Constitution and stuff.
