A new poll out shows that Obama would lose to any of the 3 major Republicans.
When respondents are forced to make a choice between a “generic” Republican and Obama, Obama wins by 5 points – 41-36.
- Despite several bad debate performances by Perry in September, when respondents watched a clip of Perry he actually gained more support than any of the other candidates and beat Obama by 6-points, 42-36.
- Now Romney had a slightly higher margin – he beat Obama by 7-points 40-33, but he did it with less support. He got less support than Perry, but so did Obama, and there were more people who were uncertain about him, which doesn’t come as a surprise — there’s clearly been a lot of dissatisfaction with Romney as the establishment candidate.
- Finally, the candidate we’re all most interested in — Herman Cain. The question is can he win the Republican primary? And can he win the general election?
- Well, he can certainly win the Republican primary. Across all treatments, when asked to choose among the eight GOP candidates, Cain won handily with 28% of the vote, followed by Romney at 19% and Perry at 12%.
- When it comes to a general election, Cain barely edged out Obama 35-34, but he moved from 5-points down in the control group with the generic Republican to 1-point up. And this jump came entirely out of Obama’s margin of the vote. It’s clear a lot of uncertainty remains in the general population about Cain – for starters he doesn’t “look like” the stereotypical GOP candidate. And he certainly doesn’t have the typical political background. But despite all that, people seem willing to give him a look – and when they get a look at him, he’s running even with Obama. What will be interesting to see is whether all those uncertain votes become more certain about Herman Cain when they get to see more of him.
This is why the GOP nomination battle is crucial. We need to replace Obama with a Conservative, not a Progressive. If we replace Obama with Romney, the Democrats will win back Congress in 2014 and the Presidency in 2016. The moment to reform America’s economic and fiscal policies will have passed. Romney must be defeated.
Tags: 2012 GOP Nomination, Evolving Strategies poll, Herman Cain, Rick Perry
