And that someone is me. Now, is it probable? About maybe a 20% chance. But is it possible? Yes, I believe it is.
Outside of Cook county, which is where Chicago is located and where the voters are terminally stupid, I mean heavily dumocratic, and the northern suburbs of Chicago, which has a large population of Jewish voters who, because of their “stuck on stupid” mentality of always voting for dumocrats, even when the dumocrats are inept (and anti-Semetic and anti-Israeli), and also where a lot of first-generation immigrants live, there’s little chance of Obama losing there.
But don’t dismiss the dumocrat voters who are disillusioned with the Obama regime- The unemployed and the under-employed, especially among minority voters. They still do support him, especially the black voters, but the question is, will they turn out to actually vote for him in the numbers they did in 2008?
My educated guess would be no, for the simple reason that the “wow” factor that was there in 2008 is gone now that a lot of them realize that while Obama may look more like them, he hasn’t made their lives any better, and a lot would admit he’s made things worse, mainly by promising so much, and delivering so little, to the people who were most susceptible to buying into Obama’s “hope and change”.
Then there’s the other parts of the Chicago-land area, mainly the western and southern suburbs.
The western suburbs, where I used to live, tended to vote heavily Republican, with 2008 being the exception, but I think a lot of that was that like a lot of voters across the country, they were tired of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the terrible economy, and blamed the Republicans for those due to the fact they were in power when all this happened, and it seemed change was needed.
But if you look at which party runs most western suburbs today, it’s almost 100% GOP-controlled again, so those GOP voters seem to have returned “home” in 2010.
And the southern suburbs, which used to be all dumocrat, are starting to see shifts in their political winds, from dumocrat to Republican. They’re about 65% to 35% dumocrat. And the further south you move away from Chicago, the more Republican voters you’ll find.
So while I would never call Illinois a red state at this time, I could see a scenario where Obama loses it. If all the stars align correctly.
Rodan Addendum: Bob is right in his analysis. A new poll shows Mitt Romney leading in the Chicago suburbs.
In the city of Chicago itself, he retains a 60-29 lead over Romney. But the Republican challenger leads 45-38 in the surrounding areas. Across the county as a whole, Romney leads 43-31 among independent voters, a crucial voting bloc. Romney also holds a 44-38 lead among male voters, and a 53-40 lead among white voters.
If Obama has to defend Illinois, this means that Romney can put Florida and North Carolina away early in the cycle.
