As per the thread I had on Tuesday – no comment.
by James Taranto
Our item yesterday on Democrats’ giving up on the “white working class” vote, along with Bill McGurn‘s column on the same subject, got us to puzzling over why. Not why would they do it–the theory that President Obama has irretrievably lost support within this voting bloc, and is better off focusing his attention on minorities and college-educated whites, is entirely plausible. But why would they advertise it?
“I guess the Democrats are telling us they don’t need our votes,” Tammy in Illinois writes to CNN’s cranky commentator Jack Cafferty. Maybe Tammy was going to vote Republican anyway, but this sort of insult is sure to cost the Dems some WWC votes.
Imagine an analogous situation: a Republican incumbent who did decently among Hispanics but whose strategists conclude has lost significant support in that segment of the electorate. If they start putting out the word that the GOP is giving up on the Hispanic vote, it would ensure that the party loses more Hispanic votes, and perhaps also the votes of non-Hispanics who don’t like the idea that the GOP is anti-Hispanic. It could also do long-term damage to the party’s ability to win over Hispanics in future elections.
Would there be any compensating gains? Maybe, if one assumes there is a significant segment of the electorate that is antipathetic toward Hispanics. Similarly, it could be that the Democrats’ disrespecting of the WWC is a tactic aimed at playing to the prejudices of other Democratic-leaning voters, especially college-educated whites. Recall that then-Sen. Obama’s delivered his notorious disquisition on “bitter clingers” to a well-heeled cackle of rads in San Francisco.
Yet in our hypothetical Republican example, surely it would be shrewder for the GOP to speak to the putative anti-Hispanic voters in “dog whistles” rather than making the antipathy explicit. (Though somehow it seems the only people who recognize those dog whistles are liberals.) Similarly, there are subtler ways for the Democrats to appeal to professional-class snobbery than by telling the WWC to vote Republican. Recall, too, that the “bitter clingers” exposition was delivered in private, or so Obama thought.
Is it even possible, then, to save the Democrats’ open disrespect for the WWC from the judgment that it is spectacularly stupid and nothing more? Reader, we’re going to try.
[…]
The rise of the so-called Occupy Wall Street movement, combined with Obama’s more confrontational tone, lifted their mood, but it was a temporary high. The urban encampments turned out to be squalid Obamavilles, not an American Arab Spring or a liberal Tea Party. Most of them are gone now, victims of bad weather or health-and-safety ordinances. And with Obama having scored few victories on Capitol Hill or in public opinion, the left could return to its summer funk any day.
It is important for them not to believe that all is lost–that Obama still has a credible shot at re-election. Openly ceding the WWC to the GOP, even if it actually ends up harming Obama’s re-election prospects, may be the price these strategists feel they have to pay in order to make credible their claim that Obama has any path to victory at all.
To be sure, all is not lost for Obama. This column is of the view that he has been on a losing trajectory since very early in his term, but any number of things could happen in the next 11 months to alter that trajectory. The economy could suddenly improve. An international crisis could arise to which Obama responds with mastery (or luck). The GOP could nominate a candidate who repels independent voters for reasons of ideology, competence or character. A third-party candidacy could split the Republican vote.
We’re not saying any of these eventualities are likely, or that they would necessarily help Obama. (Jimmy Carter had an international crisis, an “extreme” challenger, and a third-party GOP candidate, and he lost badly anyway.) But a necessary condition for an Obama victory is that his own party not throw in the towel months before the election. Abandoning the WWC may be a desperation move to forestall that possibility.
Read the rest: ‘They don’t need our votes’