The GOP may have to return to the Bush leagues.

Here’s why.

In presidential nominating contests, the Republican establishment has always won out—from the first Bush, to the tried but tired Dole, to W., then McCain, and most recently Romney, who nonetheless had to labor mightily to emerge from the weakest field of candidates in either party, ever.

[….]

And they weren’t wrong. Sure, as the unskewed polls unraveled, Mr. 47 Percent lost—with just 47 percent of the popular vote. It was a fitting end; but any of the other GOP hopefuls, except for the forgotten and mortally moderate Jon Huntsman, would have turned in a far bleaker performance.

In the aftermath, those who traditionally dominate the Republican nominating process realize they are weaker than before and are therefore anxious.

[….]

So inevitably the centripetal force of the establishment GOP will move toward Jeb Bush. He may not run—or he may spurn his mother’s advice and plunge in. He says he will decide by the end of the year. He may bear the burden of the Bush name and his brother’s failed presidency, widely reviled in both parties. But he wouldn’t bear the burden of the Ryan budget. And he would have his brother’s advantage in 2000, which brought W. within an inch of the White House, where Jeb and a partisan Supreme Court could push him over the line: Jeb could campaign as the reworded version of a compassionate conservative, the last GOP theme that tracked the mainstream. He could even reprise the tactic of pledging to end gridlock—to transcend the “the bitter arguments of the last few years… to change the tone in Washington,” as George W. promised in his 2000 speech accepting the GOP nomination.

[….]

If Jeb reaches for the nomination, there will be a titanic battle between the party establishment and the Tea Party. Steve Schmidt, McCain’s strategist in 2008,insists that in the end Republicans usually settle on the most electable candidate. To get by, this Bush may be forced to trim his positions, although the cautionary tale of Romney suggests that he would have to tack artfully and carefully for the sake of the general election. Certainly he will have the resources to outlast, discredit, and disqualify his rivals.

Finally and inadvertently, Hillary Clinton may help Jeb navigate this rocky road. If, and in my view when, she runs she will be “the inevitable Democratic nominee”—and voters will know it. Then the latest New Hampshire right-wing confab may be more a case of sound and fury than a predictor of the ultimate outcome because in states like New Hampshire, where independents can vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary, they will be drawn to the undecided race, free to take a GOP ballot—and cast it for a Jeb Bush. And then it will be up to him and his allies in the party establishment to do the rest. After protracted and bitter months, we will know whether Republicans want a real chance again in presidential contests.

I agree with some of Shrum’s assessment about the difficulties the current version of the Republican Party has in Presidential elections. I am even of the opinion no Republican can realistically defeat Hillary in 2016 as current conditions stands. But Shrum is full of garbage in his analysis.

Jeb Bush who is a Porky Pig clone,  has not run a campaign since 2002. He is washed up and out of touch with today’s electorate. bush also has a toxic last name based on the failures of his father and brother’s presidencies. A Jeb vs. Hillary match up will feature defections to the Libertarians party and a 45 state blowout win for Hillary. Shrum knows this and is just hoping Republicans take him serious and crash and burn with Jeb.