In a series of interviews with campaign officials in Chicago, it is clear that the entire re-elect operation likes its odds of winning a second term. The informal slogan is essentially “Be confident, but take nothing for granted.” Presidential senior adviser David Plouffe, the 2008 campaign manager now overseeing the enterprise from his perch steps away from the Oval Office, Jim Messina, Plouffe’s 2012 titular successor in Chicago, and their deputies in both cities believe that, despite the dangers of high unemployment and gas prices, Mitt Romney faces four major barriers to winning the big prize.

First, in the view of the Obamans, Romney is still a weak candidate. His stump skills continue to be uneven at best, with speeches plagued by awkward jargon and passionless rhetoric. They believe his tenure as head of Bain Capital and his term as governor of Massachusetts conceal vulnerabilities yet to be unveiled. “No one’s ever looked at Romney’s record, and there’s a lot there,” said one senior campaign official. “He developed this set of values at Bain about what the economy is all about … Whatever it took to make money … He took that same philosophy to Massachusetts [as governor].” Obama’s team is sitting on a multimedia treasure trove of research about both phases of Romney’s career and expects to launch powerful missiles at key moments throughout the campaign, discombobulating the Republican each time.

Romney needs to offer an alternative narrative of a better tomorrow. Just being the anti-Obama is not good enought. Romney needs to destroy the god-king myth of Obama and turn him into the failed politician he is. He also needs to make it clear that other than hitting Iran’s nuke sites there will be no war/nation building. If he does these 3 tasks he should be able to defeat Obama. The Pharaoh is vulnerable, but Romney is not well liked and has his task cut out for him.

The Obama’s campaign confidence is also a great weakness. They are bordering on over confidence and hopefully this will be a fatal flaw.