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  • Awwwwww, Poor Snowflakes.

    by coldwarrior ( 179 Comments › )
    Filed under Open thread at December 6th, 2017 - 9:34 am

    These are Snowflakes born bereft of a sense of irony:

     

    Don’t call us snowflakes – it damages our mental health, say young people

    Being called a “snowflake” is damaging to mental health, young people say.  Figures show that the majority of young people think the term is unfair – and even more think it could have a negative effect of its own.

    The “snowflake generation” is a disparaging term now commonly used to refer to young people, who are perceived to be over-sensitive and intolerant of disagreement.

    But research by insurance firm Aviva found that 72 per cent of 16-24 year-olds think the term is unfairly applied, while 74 per cent think it could have a negative effect on young people’s mental health.

    The figures also show that young people are more likely to have experienced stress, anxiety and depression in the last year.

    Perhaps someone could start a Gofundme account to help cure this disease, Snowflakeitis. Please help now.

     

    Bayes Makes A Return To Statistics.

    by coldwarrior ( 79 Comments › )
    Filed under Academia, Open thread at December 4th, 2017 - 7:43 pm

    It’s also an open thread (and a SLOW night in the ER)

     

    There has been a debate in the world of Statistics on what to do now that there are such large N studies when the math is set up for much much smaller N’s.

    Please read the details here

    The most intriguing fix has been here with us for 350 years. The Reverend Thomas Bayes put forth this:

     is a conditional probability: the likelihood of event  occurring given that  is true.

     is also a conditional probability: the likelihood of event  occurring given that  is true.

     and  are the probabilities of observing  and  independently of each other; this is known as the marginal probability.

    This is the simplest example:

    Drug testing[edit]

    Tree diagram illustrating drug testing example. U, Ū, “+” and “−” are the events representing user, non-user, positive result and negative result. Percentages in parentheses are calculated.

    Suppose that a test for using a particular drug is 99% sensitive and 99% specific. That is, the test will produce 99% true positive results for drug users and 99% true negative results for non-drug users. Suppose that 0.5% of people are users of the drug. What is the probability that a randomly selected individual with a positive test is a user?

    33.2%

    Even if an individual tests positive, it is more likely that they do not use the drug than that they do. Why? Even though the test appears to be highly accurate, the number of non-users is large compared to the number of users. The number of false positives outweighs the number of true positives.

    To use concrete numbers, if 1000 individuals are tested, there are expected to be 995 non-users and 5 users. From the 995 non-users, 0.01 × 995 ≃ 10 false positives are expected. From the 5 users, 0.99 × 5 ≈ 5 true positives are expected. Out of 15 positive results, only 5, about 33%, are genuine.

    This illustrates the importance of base rates. Daniel Kahneman has argued that the formation of policy can be egregiously misguided if base rates are neglected when using statistics as a basis for guiding public policy.[3]

    The importance of specificity in this example can be seen by calculating that even if sensitivity is raised to 100% and specificity remains at 99% then the probability of the person being a drug user only rises from 33.2% to 33.4%, but if the sensitivity is held at 99% and the specificity is increased to 99.5% then the probability of the person being a drug user rises to about 49.9%.

    As you can see, without Bayes, and Bayesian probability interpretation, we lose how a subjective degree of belief should rationally change to account for availability of related evidence. Bayesian inference is needed for these much larger N studies and for ever more complicated statistical modeling especially if policy or important outcomes are determined by these date sets.

    Sunday Sports Spectacular and Sunday Open Thread!

    by Deplorable Barbarian ( 116 Comments › )
    Filed under Uncategorized at December 3rd, 2017 - 12:00 pm

    My weekly thread has “evolved” – No more pigskin reference in the title.  Because NFL is done.

    The news coming out of the NFL this week has me convinced that somewhere in a safe in Roger Goodell’s office, he has naked pictures of a majority of the NFL owners.  How in Hades do you renew the contract, with bonuses and perks, of the man singularly HATED by the fans and who has presided over the destruction of the very league he governs?  Word is, of course, that Goodell will do whatever the owners want – unlike Rozelle and Tagliabue – so they’re happy to keep him around.  I can’t wait for the day when they ask him to bark like a dog at a press conference.

    If that’s not bad enough, apparently the NFL is going to pay “shakedown money” to those SJW players taking a knee – to the tune of $100,000,000 over several years.  SOME of it is going to the United Negro College Fund, but the majority is going to groups like Black Lives Matter, not the “official” BLM mind you  – but their more mainstream named subgroups.  How much, may I ask, has the NFL given to organizations supporting the families of the police officers that have been murdered by Krapperdick’s new best friends?  So for this they will no longer disrespect the anthem?  The fans aren’t dumb, NFL, and this is the ultimate insult to their intelligence.  Oh, and good luck getting public funding for future stadiums.

    Speaking of Krapperdick (who STILL hasn’t gotten a gig in the NFL despite his preening attorney’s claim a month ago that he would be “hired within the next 10 days”), Rishard (not a misspelling) Matthews is taking advantage of today’s “wear whatever cleats you want” celebration to wear cleats in support of the Krapper.  Fine, it’s his right.  But he couldn’t leave it at that.  He said “He has paid the ultimate sacrifice in order to bring true everyday issues to light.”  What the EFF?  Are you kidding me?  He’s paid NO price, you effing dickhead.  He walked away from a $15,000,000 contract because he didn’t want to sit on a bench and he was stupid enough to think another team would snap him up.  I would also point out – again – that as bad as the 49ers are right now, NO ONE is asking him to come back.

    And as far as “ultimate sacrifice” you jerk, may I recommend traveling east.  To Arlington National Cemetery.  THAT is the Ultimate Sacrifice for a cause.

    Playing on turf:

    Vikings @Falcons
    Lions @ Ravens
    Patriots @ Bills
    Bay Area Asswipes @ Bears
    Buccaneers @ Packers
    Colts @ Jaguars
    Broncos @ Dolphins
    Chiefs @ Jets
    Texans @ Titans (where I hope somone “stomps” his special cleats)
    Browns @ Chargers
    Panthers @ Saints
    Rams @ Cardinals
    Giants @ Raiders
    Eagles @ Seattle

    Monday’s game
    Steelers @ Bengals

    Playing on ice:

    Kings @ Blackhawks
    Senators @ Jets
    Coyotes @ Golden Knights (aka Arizona @ Vegas…..not natural)
    Stars @ Avalanche

    Playing on links:

    Depending how you feel about it, Tiger Woods returned to the PGA tour this week for the Hero World Challenge and is currently tied for 10th, which means he most certainly made the cut for the final round today.  I’ve always liked watching Tiger play.  It’s his horndog antics off the course that turned me off.  Of course, as we learned this week, Matt Lauer makes him look like a rank amateur in that department.

    Shaddup, NBA.

    And as always, it’s your Sunday open thread.  Still mourning Auburn’s loss myself.  Predictable it was, but still is an ‘ouch’.

    NCAA D1 College Football Championship Week 2017 Open

    by coldwarrior ( 172 Comments › )
    Filed under College Football, Uncategorized at December 1st, 2017 - 12:00 pm

    It’s an Open…

    This season has been insane, insane in a great way! This weekend is Championship Week to decide the 4 teams going to the Playoffs and it starts Friday Night with the Pac-10 Championship. Therefore, This went up Friday at noon. Mrs Coldwarrior and I are headed to get our favorite hamburgers at this place. Then off to the sister establishment, our favorite bar in the whole wide world.

    It’s Clemson, Auburn, Oklahoma and Wisconsin (the ONLY undefeated team) in the final 4.

    Friday Night’s game:

    #12 Stanford

    #10 USC

    8:00 PM

     

    PAC10 Final: The Stanford Cardinal (you bet your sweet ass I am!) are 4 point dogs in Reno at USC for this neutral site game. Had USC not had their entire offensive line injured they would be playing for the National Championship. USC’s QB Sam Darnold will be playing for a long time on Sundays and they will cover this spread.

    The Games on Saturday:

    #11 TCU

    12:30 PM

     

    Big 12 Final: Its the Horned Frog’s pass defense against the juggernaut that is Oklahoma’s high powered offense in the Big-12’s Final. QB Baker Mayfield will also be playing for a ling time on Sundays. Oklahoma is favored by a touchdown on all of the betting boards.Oklahoma needs to win to stay in the playoffs and they beat this spread late.

    #6 Georgia

    4:00 PM

    SEC Final: Auburn came out of nowhere this year and beat ‘Bama last week in the Iron Bowl.They win and they stay in. If UGA pulls off a win here all hell is going to break lose for playoff spots. ‘Bama is #5 after the loss to Auburn and are one place out of the picture for now. UGA, ‘BAMA. and Auburn all have the same conference record. This is going to get very interesting. Auburn are a 2 point favorite in this game.  Georgia lost big a few weeks ago to Auburn on the road. I just don’t see them losing twice. I’m taking UGA with the upset but will be rooting for Auburn as I know 3 Auburn grads and no UGA grads.

    #7 Miami

    8:00 PM

    ACC Final: Miami lost last week to my beloved PITT Panthers. That was the PITT QB Freshman in his first ever NCAA game who sliced up Miami’s defense. They are vulnerable as their lack of strength of schedule shows. Clemson is a 9 point favorite in this game, a further reflection of Miami’s weak schedule. Clemson wins, but does not cover.

    #8 Ohio State

    8:00 PM

    Big10 Final: Ohio State got blown out twice this year against quality opponents while Wisconsin remains undefeated but mostly untested hence the reason that OSU is a 6 point favorite in this game. OSU is overrated again this year. Frankly, neither of these two teams deserve to be in the playoffs. OSU wins outright and no one from the Big 10 makes the playoffs.


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