We had a census last summer, remember? And then we just had an election. Well, that must mean it is time for REDISTRICTING!
The media has conveniently neglected this most important aspect of election 2010.
Redistricting generally occurs every ten years after the census year. The governor and the state houses do the heavy lifting and draw on maps after looking at the census population data. If a state loses enough people it loses a congressional seat, if a state gains enough people it gains congressional seats. This is where the Tea Parties were most lethal to the Left. The Right picked up 680 state house seats! This is a staggering number and the Tea Parties are to be commended for this grassroots action. The GOP picked up/held the Governor’s mansion in 23 States while the Dems held on to the Governorship in California, New York, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Arkansas. The bickering and fighting of redistricting is usually decided by the party in power at the state level.
So, given the results of the 2010 election, there will be even more GOP seats in the Congress and state houses. Here’s why: the states that lost people (and don’t use an independent redistricting authority like New Jersey and Iowa): Ohio, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, Michigan, Illinois, New York, and Minnesota will probably lose a congressional seat. The Governor and the state house draw the districts.
New York, Illinois, and Minnesota will probably preserve a Democrat seat and try to combine it with a Republican held seat to remove the Republican seat if possible.
Here’s the Rub, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Louisiana all have GOP governors now and GOP majority in the houses. They will try to remove a Democrat seat in favor of keeping the GOP seat.
The political landscape in PA, LA, MI, and OH will change to favor the GOP, the landscape in NY, IL, and MN stays the same as they remain Democrat.
Now, those people from the losing population states had to go somewhere, right? They all went to Texas and Florida. Both state have Republican Governors and Republican houses. Texas (this link from Huck) is going to gain 4 congressional seats, Florida will gain about 1 or 2 . There may be other southern states that gain as well.
So what does all of this data wonking mean? It means the election in 2010 with redistricting +/- of seats gives the GOP a net gain of approximately 6-8 seats changing hands form Democrat to Republican. It also give the GOP an easier time of getting re-elected and staying in power by reducing the number of gerrymandered Democrat districts and changing the landscape in which the contests occur. This will effect the 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020 elections directly in both the Congress and State Houses. This is the first of the far reaching effects of the Tea Parties.
THIS from Bob in Breckenridge: Not only are all the Democrats’ states losing population, which isn’t as important for redistricting, but the Democrats’ biggest plum, California, which will be losing congressional seats for the first time since the ’50s, also approved a ballot measure that will take redistricting out of the hands of the (almost all liberal) California legislators and turn it over to a Citizens Redistricting Commission, (this was a measure that George Soros was very again$t).
AND:
Tags: Census, election 2010, redistricting 2011
