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Saturday Lecture,

by coldwarrior ( 8 Comments › )
Filed under Academia, Astronomy, Open thread, saturday lecture series, Science at January 21st, 2012 - 8:30 am

Good morning, all. Today we have a double lecture both involving that lovely thermonuclear reactor some 8 light minutes away called our Sun. The first is what happens to a comet when it flies too close to the sun, it ‘Icaruses’. Second is what happens to space junk in orbit around the earth during increased solar activity.

The Ethiopian Yrgacheffe, First Flush Darjeeling, and fresh croissants with butter and preserves are at the ready, dig in (or out if you just got snowed on) and enjoy the lecture.

 


 

SOHO coronographic image of sun grazing comet seen on July 5 and 6, 2011.
› View larger
A “sun grazing” comet as caught by SOHO’s LASCO C2 camera as it dived toward the sun on July 5 and July 6, 2011. SOHO is the overwhelming leader in spotting sungrazers, with over 2000 spotted to date, aided by the fact that the sun’s bright light is itself blocked out by a coronograph. Credit: SOHO (ESA & NASA)

 

On July 6, 2011, a comet was caught doing something never seen before: die a scorching death as it flew too close to the sun. That the comet met its fate this way was no surprise – but the chance to watch it first-hand amazed even the most seasoned comet watchers.

“Comets are usually too dim to be seen in the glare of the sun’s light,” says Dean Pesnell at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., who is the project scientist for NASA’s Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO), which snapped images of the comet. “We’ve been telling people we’d never see one in SDO data.”

But an ultra bright comet, from a group known as the Kreutz comets, overturned all preconceived notions. The comet can clearly be viewed moving in over the right side of the sun, disappearing 20 minutes later as it evaporates in the searing heat. The movie is more than just a novelty. As detailed in a paper in Science magazine appearing January 20, 2012, watching the comet’s death provides a new way to estimate the comet’s size and mass. The comet turns out to be somewhere between 150 to 300 feet long and have about as much mass as an aircraft carrier.

“Of course, it’s doing something very different than what aircraft carriers do,” says Karel Schrijver, a solar scientist at Lockheed Martin in Palo Alto, Calif., who is the first author on the Science paper and is the principal investigator of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly instrument on SDO, which recorded the movie. “It was moving along at almost 400 miles per second through the intense heat of the sun – and was literally being evaporated away.”

Typically, comet-watchers see the Kreutz-group comets only through images taken by coronagraphs, a specialized telescope that views the Sun’s fainter out atmosphere, or corona, by blocking the direct blinding sunlight with a solid occulting disk. On average a new member of the Kreutz family is discovered every three days, with some of the larger members being observed for some 48 hours or more before disappearing behind the occulting disk, never to be seen again. Such “sun-grazer” comets obviously destruct when they get close to the sun, but the event had never been witnessed.

The journey to categorizing this comet began on July 6, 2011 after Schrijver spotted a bright comet in a coronagraph produced by the SOlar Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). He looked for it in the SDO images and much to his surprise he found it. Soon a movie of the comet circulated to comet and solar scientists, eventually making a huge splash on the Internet as well.

Karl Battams, a scientist with the Naval Research Laboratory in Washington, DC, who has extensively observed comets with SOHO and is also an author on the paper, was skeptical when he first received the movie. “But as soon as I watched it, there was zero doubt,” he says. “I am so used to seeing comets simply disappearing in the SOHO images. It was breathtaking to see one truly evaporating in the corona like that.”

After the excitement, the scientists got down to work. Humans have been watching and recording comets for thousands of years, but finding their dimensions has typically required a direct visit from a probe flying nearby. This movie offered the first chance to measure such things from afar. The very fact that the comet evaporated in a certain amount of time over a certain amount of space means one can work backward to determine how big it must have been before hitting the sun’s atmosphere.

 THE VIDEO IS LINKED HERE

The Science paper describes the comet and its last moments as follows: It was traveling some 400 miles per second and made it to within 62,000 miles of the sun’s surface before evaporating. Before its final death throes, in the last 20 minutes of its existence when it was visible to SDO, the comet was some 100 million pounds, had broken up into a dozen or so large chunks with sizes between 30 to 150 feet, embedded in a “coma” — that is the fuzzy cloud surrounding the comet — of approximately 800 miles across, and followed by a glowing tail of about 10,000 miles in length.

It is actually the coma and tail of the comet being seen in the video, not the comet’s core. And close examination shows that the light in the tail pulses, getting dimmer and brighter over time. The team speculates that the pulsing variations are caused by successive breakups of each of the individual chunks that made up the comet material as it fell apart in the Sun’s intense heat.

“I think this is one of the most interesting things we can see here,” says Lockheed’s Schrijver. “The comet’s tail gets brighter by as much as four times every minute or two. The comet seems first to put a lot of material into that tail, then less, and then the pattern repeats.” Figuring out the exact details of why this happens is but one of the mysteries remaining about this comet movie. High on the list is to answer the not-so-simple question of why we can see the comet at all. Certainly, there are a few basic characteristics of this situation that help. For one, this comet was big enough to survive long enough to be seen, and its orbit took it right across the face of the Sun. It was also, says Battams, probably one of the top 15 brightest comets seen by SOHO, which has observed over 2,100 sun-grazing comets to date. The SDO cameras, in of themselves, also contributed a great deal: despite being far away and relatively small compared to the sun, the comet showed up clearly on SDO’s high definition imager. This imager, called the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) takes a picture every 12 seconds so the movement of the comet across the face of the sun could be continuously watched. Most other similar instruments capture images every few minutes, which makes it hard to track the movement of an object that’s only visible for 20 minutes.

But ultimately, the fact that one can see this comet against the background of the sun means there is some physical process not yet understood. “Normally,” says Goddard’s Pesnell, “a comet passing in front of the sun absorbs the light from the sun. We would have expected a black spot against the sun, not a bright one. And there’s not enough stuff in the corona to make it glow, the way a meteor does when it goes into Earth’s atmosphere. So one of the really big questions is why do we see it at all?”

Figuring out this question should offer information not only about material in the comet, but also about the sun’s atmosphere – and so this opens up the door to a new niche of study. Assuming, of course, that one can spot some more comets. So far SDO has only seen the one passing in front of the sun, though SDO did spot Comet Lovejoy traveling through the corona, as it went behind the sun and reappeared.

Stay tuned, as new sun-grazing comets appear every few days . . .

AND…

From Our Friends at Spaceweather:

INCREASING SOLAR ACTIVITY CLEANS UP SAT-DEBRIS: Earth’s atmosphere has been puffing up in response to increasing levels of UV radiation from sunspots. This is good news for satellite operators, because a puffed up atmosphere helps clean up low-Earth orbit. “The number of cataloged debris in Earth orbit actually decreased during 2011,” reports Nick Johnson in NASA’s Orbital Debris Quarterly newsletter. “[The figure below] illustrates how the rate of debris reentries from the Fengyun-1C anti-satellite test of January 2007 increased during the past year.”

“Even though only 6% of the total 3218 cataloged debris from the ill-advised engagement had reentered by the end of 2011, half of these debris fell out of orbit in the past 12 months,” he points out. “Likewise, many debris from the 2009 accidental collision of Cosmos 2251 and Iridium 33 are accelerating their departure from Earth orbit. In the absence of a new major satellite breakup, the overall orbital debris population should continue to decrease during 2012 and 2013.”

 

I haven’t received my copy of Orbital Debris Quarterly yet, the mailman is stuck in the snow, so, i’ll have to use the link in the article 😆 .

 

And a BONUS! Part 3:

INCOMING CME: Active sunspot 1401 erupted yesterday, Jan. 19th around 16:30 UT, producing an M3-class solar flare and a full-halo coronal mass ejection (CME). The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory recorded the cloud expanding almost directly toward Earth:

Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say strong geomagnetic storms are possible when the cloud arrives this weekend. Their animated forecast track predicts an impact on Jan. 21st at 22:30 UT (+/- 7 hrs). Aurora alerts: text, voice.

The cloud is also heading for Mars, due to hit the Red Planet on Jan. 24th. NASA’s Curiosity rover, en route to Mars now, is equipped to study solar storms and might be able to detect a change in the energetic particle environment when the CME passes by.

Aurora Alert and Open Thread

by coldwarrior ( 132 Comments › )
Filed under Academia, Astronomy, Open thread, saturday lecture series, Science at August 3rd, 2011 - 8:00 pm

I Filed this under Saturday Lecture Series

From today’s http://www.spaceweather.com/:

M6-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Sunspot 1261 unleashed another strong solar flare this morning–an M6-class flash at 1348 UT. Like yesterday’s eruption from the same active region, this explosion propelled a CME in the general direction of Earth. ETA: August 6th. Stay tuned for additional analysis..

INCOMING CLOUD: Yesterday’s M1-class eruption from sunspot 1261 was observed by three spacecraft: SOHO, STEREO-A and STEREO-B. Using data from those three points of view, analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab have made a 3-dimensional model of the CME now en route to Earth. Click on the image to launch a computer-generated movie of the expanding cloud:

Yes, i know the animation goes into the text on the right…Anyway. Below is the Animation from GSFC Space Weather Lab.:

 

According to their work, the CME left the sun traveling 900 km/s and should reach Earth (denoted by a yellow dot in the simulation) on August 5th at 0300 UT plus or minus 7 hours. Another cloud produced by today’s M-flare may be right behind it; stay tuned for movies of that one, too. Mild to moderate geomagnetic storms are possible when these CMEs arrive on August 5th and 6th. Aurora alerts: text, voice.

 

 

Predicted Aurora Activity:

Updated at: 2011 Aug 02 2200 UTC

Mid-latitudes

0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
05 %
40 %
MINOR
01 %
15 %
SEVERE
01 %
05 %

High latitudes

0-24 hr
24-48 hr
ACTIVE
05 %
40 %
MINOR
01 %
15 %
SEVERE
01 %
05 %

 

 

Right now, the kP Index is at 1, that’s low. Keep an eye on this page, if the number goes over 4-5 then there should be visible activity for some of us.

 

This is the current Statistical Auroral Oval, it updates as new info is added

 

 

Incoming Coronal Mass Ejection.

by coldwarrior ( 1 Comment › )
Filed under Astronomy, Headlines, Science at August 2nd, 2011 - 10:39 am

INCOMING CME: Magnetic fields above sunspot 1261 erupted this morning at 0648 UT, producing an M1-class solar flare. The blast also hurled a bright coronal mass ejection toward Earth. This movie from the STEREO-Ahead spacecraft shows the cloud racing away from the sun at almost 900 km/s. Geomagnetic storms are possible when the CME reaches Earth on or about August 5th. Stay tuned for updates.

 

ahead_20110802_cor2_512

 

The CME came from here:

 

 

MAGNIFICENT SUNSPOT: Double sunspot 1263 is a whopper. Its two dark cores are each wider than Earth, and the entire region stretches more than 65,000 km from end to end. Yesterday in the Netherlands, Emil Kraaikamp took advantage of a break in the clouds and “a few moments of steady air” to capture this magnificent photo:

 

Drop in Solar Activity Predicted.

by coldwarrior ( 23 Comments › )
Filed under Academia, Astronomy, Open thread, saturday lecture series, Science at June 18th, 2011 - 8:30 am

Today’s Saturday lecture series covers a predicted drop in solar activity, perhaps even a skip of the upcoming solar maximum. Please familiarize yourself with the following links before continuing to the main article. I am at a golf outing seminar…yeah, a seminar this weekend on impact-generated ballistic trajectories of urethane covered spheres in rural areas. I will be presenting a paper on titanium/urethane interactions in dynamic impacts. So, any questions, feel free to email the blog and I will get to them after the conference!

 

You also need to know what a Solar Cycle is before reading this article.

You need to know what a Maunder Minimum is before reading this article.

Additional Text & Images:

A link form Kirly from Wattsupwiththat

 

WHAT’S DOWN WITH THE SUN? MAJOR DROP IN SOLAR ACTIVITY PREDICTED:

A missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles say that our Sun is heading for a rest period even as it is acting up for the first time in years, according to scientists at the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL).

As the current sunspot cycle, Cycle 24, begins to ramp up toward maximum, independent studies of the solar interior, visible surface, and the corona indicate that the next 11-year solar sunspot cycle, Cycle 25, will be greatly reduced or may not happen at all.

The results were announced at the annual meeting of the Solar Physics Division of the American Astronomical Society, which is being held this week at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces: http://astronomy.nmsu.edu/SPD2011/

“This is highly unusual and unexpected,” Dr. Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO’s Solar Synoptic Network, said of the results. “But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation.”

Spot numbers and other solar activity rise and fall about every 11 years, which is half of the Sun’s 22-year magnetic interval since the Sun’s magnetic poles reverse with each cycle. An immediate question is whether this slowdown presages a second Maunder Minimum, a 70-year period with virtually no sunspots during 1645-1715.

Hill is the lead author on one of three papers on these results being presented this week. Using data from the Global Oscillation Network Group (GONG) of six observing stations around the world, the team translates surface pulsations caused by sound reverberating through the Sun into models of the internal structure. One of their discoveries is an east-west zonal wind flow inside the Sun, called the torsional oscillation, which starts at mid-latitudes and migrates towards the equator. The latitude of this wind stream matches the new spot formation in each cycle, and successfully predicted the late onset of the current Cycle 24.

“We expected to see the start of the zonal flow for Cycle 25 by now,” Hill explained, “but we see no sign of it. This indicates that the start of Cycle 25 may be delayed to 2021 or 2022, or may not happen at all.”

In the second paper, Matt Penn and William Livingston see a long-term weakening trend in the strength of sunspots, and predict that by Cycle 25 magnetic fields erupting on the Sun will be so weak that few if any sunspots will be formed. Spots are formed when intense magnetic flux tubes erupt from the interior and keep cooled gas from circulating back to the interior. For typical sunspots this magnetism has a strength of 2,500 to 3,500 gauss (Earth’s magnetic field is less than 1 gauss at the surface); the field must reach at least 1,500 gauss to form a dark spot.

Using more than 13 years of sunspot data collected at the McMath-Pierce Telescope at Kitt Peak in Arizona, Penn and Livingston observed that the average field strength declined about 50 gauss per year during Cycle 23 and now in Cycle 24. They also observed that spot temperatures have risen exactly as expected for such changes in the magnetic field. If the trend continues, the field strength will drop below the 1,500 gauss threshold and spots will largely disappear as the magnetic field is no longer strong enough to overcome convective forces on the solar surface.

Moving outward, Richard Altrock, manager of the Air Force’s coronal research program at NSO’s Sunspot, NM, facilities has observed a slowing of the “rush to the poles,” the rapid poleward march of magnetic activity observed in the Sun’s faint corona. Altrock used four decades of observations with NSO’s 40-cm (16-inch) coronagraphic telescope at Sunspot.

“A key thing to understand is that those wonderful, delicate coronal features are actually powerful, robust magnetic structures rooted in the interior of the Sun,” Altrock explained. “Changes we see in the corona reflect changes deep inside the Sun.”

Altrock used a photometer to map iron heated to 2 million degrees C (3.6 million F). Stripped of half of its electrons, it is easily concentrated by magnetism rising from the Sun. In a well-known pattern, new solar activity emerges first at about 70 degrees latitude at the start of a cycle, then towards the equator as the cycle ages. At the same time, the new magnetic fields push remnants of the older cycle as far as 85 degrees poleward.

“In cycles 21 through 23, solar maximum occurred when this rush appeared at an average latitude of 76 degrees,” Altrock said. “Cycle 24 started out late and slow and may not be strong enough to create a rush to the poles, indicating we’ll see a very weak solar maximum in 2013, if at all. If the rush to the poles fails to complete, this creates a tremendous dilemma for the theorists, as it would mean that Cycle 23’s magnetic field will not completely disappear from the polar regions (the rush to the poles accomplishes this feat). No one knows what the Sun will do in that case.”

All three of these lines of research to point to the familiar sunspot cycle shutting down for a while.

“If we are right,” Hill concluded, “this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate.”

In response to news inquiries and stories, Dr. Frank Hill issued a follow-up statement:

“We are NOT predicting a mini-ice age. We are predicting the behavior of the solar cycle. In my opinion, it is a huge leap from that to an abrupt global cooling, since the connections between solar activity and climate are still very poorly understood. My understanding is that current calculations suggest only a 0.3 degree C decrease from a Maunder-like minimum, too small for an ice age. It is unfortunate that the global warming/cooling studies have become so politically polarizing.”