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Posts Tagged ‘Housing Bubble’

No Recovery From The Housing Bubble Until ALL Public Sector Unions Are GONE

by 1389AD ( 56 Comments › )
Filed under Democratic Party, Economy, Elections 2012, Tea Parties, Unions at November 2nd, 2011 - 2:00 pm

Property taxation forms a huge part of the reason why we cannot recover from the collapse of the housing bubble. We are in this predicament because we have allowed local and State governments to cave in to the confiscatory demands of public sector unions.

Government employees should never have been permitted to unionize in the first place.

Spengler: The Economics of Polarization, or Why the Tea Party is Magnificently Right

A hard look at the data explains the polarization of American politics: state and local governments are increasing property taxes even while the housing market crashes, and this is killing the middle class. In many parts of the country prospective homebuyers will pay almost as much in property taxes as in mortgage interest! No wonder the residential real estate market can’t come up for air, and why the American middle class feels that it is fighting for its existence. The only solution will be the kind pioneered by Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, one of the real heroes of our time: renegotiate the whole relationship between the government and the government unions. But that would mean the end of the Democratic Party as we know it. That’s why the upcoming presidential election will be the nastiest in living memory.

Crunching the numbers, I was gobsmacked by the way in which the tax burden has trickled down to the state and local level and crushed the middle class. [emphasis added] The charts and graphs are available in my “Spengler” essay at Asia Times Online this morning

America is engaged in class war, but not of the sort one reads about in the mainstream press. The truly indigent — young African-American men, for example, most of whom are now unemployed — have little to do in this war. Large corporations for the most part are bystanders as well; they will make their peace with the victor. This is a war of survival between the productive middle class on one hand, and the dependents of the state on the other. [emphasis added]
[…]
State and local governments, though, have exhausted their tax base, and the continuous rise in property taxes through the crash in property prices has kept the real estate market more depressed than economic conditions otherwise might indicate. A further increase in tax rates would yield less revenue. In effect, the government would have to proceed from taxing private capital to expropriating it, de facto or de jure — for example, nationalizing banks and directing them to make loans to politically-favored projects, after the fashion of Latin American banana republics.

The alternative is to renegotiate pension and health benefits already promised to public sector unions…

Or, preferably, ban public sector unions entirely, at all levels of government.

…The crisis has called into being a political movement of the exasperated middle class, namely the Tea Party. It has erased the image of the government unions as champions of progressive causes, and exposed them as an “aristocracy of labor” (in Marx’s phrase) parasitizing the public revenue.

The outcome inherently favors the Republicans. Debt — the catchall name for the crushing tax burden — has become a hot button issue even for many Democrats. But this election will be fought more desperately, and nastily, than any other that comes to mind during the past century. This is an existential struggle, a political war of survival for the American middle class. If the government unions go down in the fight, the Democratic Party of Barack Obama will cease to exist in its present form – and that would be a beneficial outcome for the United States.

That explains why the debt issue raises emotions. Republican consultants report that in focus groups, TV commercials about out-of-control debt prompt strongly positive responses even from Democrats. Even Democrats have to live somewhere and a lot of them own homes. And there are a lot more Democratic taxpayers and homeowners than there are government workers. This is a wedge issue for Republicans that won’t quit.

Here’s one result that I found remarkable: It shows the aggregate property taxes paid to state and local governments, against aggregate mortgage payments (the outstanding volume of mortgage debt multiplied by the current mortgage rate). The result is somewhat exaggerated, because about a third of property tax collections are commercial rather than residential, but it’s still compelling: the property tax burden on homeowners is now roughly equivalent to the interest burden on their mortgages!

Property taxes vs home mortgage interest (mortgage debt outstanding multiplied by current mortgage rate), in $US billions

Mortgage interest/property tax squeeze

Source: Census Bureau, Federal Reserve

Read it all.

Property taxes add to the expense of owning a home. Prospective home buyers can’t and won’t buy houses in areas where the property tax pushes the homes out of their range of affordability. So if you need to move to find work, but you’re stuck in a good house in a good neighborhood that you cannot sell, you can put a major part of the blame on your local public sector unions.

Property taxes support the public school system, along with other government agencies with unionized employees on their payrolls. Via the automatic union dues deduction from the salaries of teachers and other unionized public employees, the money feeds directly into public employee union coffers and the Democrat party.

This is why Tea Party groups are putting as much focus on local property taxes and other state and local taxes as they do on federal taxation, and well they should! So join your local Tea Party group and do everything you can to help them to starve this governmental beast that threatens to leave us all destitute.


America’s Lost decade

by Phantom Ace ( 26 Comments › )
Filed under Barack Obama, Democratic Party, Economy, George W. Bush, Misery Index, Progressives, Republican Party, Special Report at April 21st, 2011 - 7:57 am

Many Conservatives act as if we feel from great heights when the recession hit in 2007/2008. They blame the Democrats and Barney Frank for the Housing bubble collapse. This is only partly true, the rest of the blame lies with the GOP as well. From 2002-2006, the GOP controlled The House, senate and Presidency. During that time period, job growth was anemic averaging only 100,000-150,000 a month. Although the Unemployment rate was low, that was due to the rate being low already from the 90’s boom. Employment was just barely keeping up with the population. The wage stagnation began around 2000 and we have never recovered. Why was growth lousy the past decade? The answer is obvious, our deficit spending and debt accumulation.

The economy has been bedridden far longer than we realize — and you can blame lying statistics for at least some of it.

So says Rob Arnott of Research Affiliates, a Newport Beach, Calif., investment management firm with some $50 billion under management. He argues in his monthly newsletter that, contrary to popular belief, the roots of our current malaise predate the financial crisis – and not by a little bit.

Arnott says the U.S. economy actually went off the rails more than a decade ago. What’s more, many of us have failed to realize it because the most widely watched economic indicator, gross domestic product, actually tracks consumption, irresponsible or otherwise, rather than real wealth generation.

[…]

“GDP that stems from new debt — mainly deficit spending — is phony: it is debt-financed consumption, not prosperity,” Arnott writes. “Net of deficit spending, our prosperity is nearly unchanged from 1998, 13 years ago.”

That seems hard to believe. The late 1990s are sometimes remembered as the last time the U.S. economy was consistently doing things like generating wage gains for people other than CEOs, and even the housing bubble-fueled 2000s are widely assumed to have not been a total wash.

Read the rest: Lost decade? We’ve already had one

Here is a chart comparing the job and wealth growth of the 2000’s to that of previous decades.

 

 

The deficit spending that began under Bush and that rapidly increased under Obama is what’s causing this anemic wage and job growth. It also doesn’t help we have policies that promote outsourcing and we allow other nations to take advantage of us. The fact is the US peaked economically around 98/99 and we have been downhill ever since. When the Housing bubble popped, the economy’s true rot was exposed. Obama’s policies have made things worse. We must get our fiscal house in order and implement tax and regulatory reform.

Both political parties are to blame for this economic mess. As it stands, we’re entering our 2nd lost decade. Something needs to be done or it’s too late.

 

 

The Education Bubble

by Phantom Ace ( 297 Comments › )
Filed under Academia, Democratic Party, Economy, George W. Bush, Progressives, Republican Party at April 12th, 2011 - 1:30 pm

Our Bi-partisan Progressive elites keep pushing collage education as the solution to all our ills. As someone in the IT industry, without a degree I can tell you this is nonsense. Thanks Bi-partisan support for outsourcing of Hi Tech and financial jobs, many people with degrees are working at McDonalds or Walmart. I don’t knock any job, but you can’t sustain high living standards with these low paying jobs. So why do our politicians continue to push for College education? The answer is so their banking buddies can make money off people who take out loans to go to College. The Universities alos make money off these loans as well. 

People who take out colleg are straddled with debt that it takes them many years to pay off. Also, not everyone is meant to go to college. Does this sound familiar, well it should. This is what we did by encouraging home ownership. Whether it was Clinton lowering the standards for a loan or Bush’s ownership society. Once again, the Progressive Bi-partisan elite are creating another finacial bubble.

Fair warning: This article will piss off a lot of you.

I can say that with confidence because it’s about Peter Thiel. And Thiel – the PayPal co-founder, hedge fund manager and venture capitalist – not only has a special talent for making money, he has a special talent for making people furious.

[….]

Consider the 2000 Nasdaq crash. Thiel was one of the few who saw in coming. There’s a famous story about PayPal’s March 2000 venture capital round. The offer was “only” at a $500 million-or-so valuation. Nearly everyone on the board and the management team balked, except Thiel who calmly told the room that this was a bubble at its peak, and the company needed to take every dime it could right now. That’s how close PayPal came to being dot com roadkill a la WebVan or Pets.com.

And after the crash, Thiel insisted there hadn’t really been a crash: He argued the equity bubble had simply shifted onto the housing market. Thiel was so convinced of this thesis that until recently, he refused to buy property, despite his soaring personal net worth. And, again, he was right.

[….]

Instead, for Thiel, the bubble that has taken the place of housing is the higher education bubble. “A true bubble is when something is overvalued and intensely believed,” he says. “Education may be the only thing people still believe in in the United States. To question education is really dangerous. It is the absolute taboo. It’s like telling the world there’s no Santa Claus.”

Like the housing bubble, the education bubble is about security and insurance against the future. Both whisper a seductive promise into the ears of worried Americans: Do this and you will be safe. The excesses of both were always excused by a core national belief that no matter what happens in the world, these were the best investments you could make. Housing prices would always go up, and you will always make more money if you are college educated.

Read the rest: Peter Thiel: We’re in a Bubble and It’s Not the Internet. It’s Higher Education.

Once again, our politicians are engaged in Progressive social engineering. College is a worthy goal for people, but like home ownership it’s not for everyone. The reality is, you don’t need a College degree for many jobs. What we need are trade schools for to give skills for non College people. We need to implement Tax and regulatory reform so we can bring good paying jobs back to America. We need to get away from the Globalized Free Trade Ubber Alles mindset that has destroyed America’s living standards. Our economic policies should be what is in America’s interest, not what the Global Progressive elite at Davos decide and their Bi-Partisan puppets here at home.

The College bubble will be just as disastrous for our financial system as was the housing bubble.